The Widdershins

Where to start?

Posted on: November 16, 2016

Scene:  A moderately seedy bar.  Low light.  If you could, it would smell of stale beer and old ashtrays.  A long bar of AA dropouts litter the place. p-dive-bar-96th-front

A man who has been over-served at some other establishment lumbers in the door.  He pours himself into a seat at the bar, pulls out a wad of cash, and begins the acquisition of respect and friendship one round at a time.

This stranger is quite loquacious.  He’s quite generous with his opinions and they are as free-flowing as the intellectualizing brown liquids.  The bar tab ensures plenty of deference.

As closing hour draws nigh, he offers everyone a ride back to his place to continue the fine evening.  Everyone is game.  For good measure, the bartender treats everyone to another round on the house.

No one asks the free-wheeling philosopher if he’s okay to drive because no one cares.  The AA dropouts don’t dare ask.  As they leave, the bartender pours everyone a shot for good measure to make sure no one backs out.

And off they go.  To what ends we aren’t sure.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

In the little vignette, the philosophizing drunk is, of course, the clamorous Yam.  The other bar clientele are the white voters, mostly men, who decided at the last moment to get drunk with him and go along for the ride.

Listening to drunks in bars is entertaining, just like listening to the outrageous claims of this rubber-skinned traffic cone has been.  So entertaining that no one really cared if what he was saying had an ounce of truth behind it.  In fact, climbing into a car with a drunk would be infinitely safer than trusting the future of mankind to a magic 8-ball dipped in gold leaf.  There are no airbags for thermonuclear devastation.

By the way, the bartender who plied the pickled livers with drinks?  His friends call him Vlad.

its-mourning-in-america

There’s so much happening and so much has been written, I honestly didn’t know where to start.  There’s just not a good way to bring organization to this miasma of ineptitude and brokenness.  Never in my lifetime did I ever think I would hear a Presidential transition be described as Stalinesque.

Here’s what I’m offering up in the next three days.  Today I’d like to focus on how we came to have an emotionally stunted kumquat as the President-Elect.  Tomorrow I’ll take a stab at what we know of the clowns populating this rodeo.  On Friday, I’ll describe what I’ve witnessed in dysfunctional personality types similar to the Mango Macaque.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

A few thoughts:

  1. Only Democrats would engage in prolonged self-flagellation and then don sackcloth and ashes for winning the popular vote in an election. With the final votes not even counted, no one is waiting to analyze the results before looking for a goat to “scape” at the altar of “I told you so”.
  2. With last Tuesday’s results, the Democratic Primary is finally over. The puritanical Bernie-Bros led by the “High” Priestess Susan “Sour”andon can now sleep soundly in their asbestos pajamas as the world burns down about them.  Their immortals souls will be vindicated when St. Peter asks them about suborning private email servers.  By the way, it has been 8 days and nary a breathless story about email or Benghazi has led the evening news or graced the front pages of the newspapers.
  3. One last word about that Independent Vermonter who now believes he can take over the party he still refuses to join – selecting a Black Muslim who has another full-time job to win over middle class white males is a novel approach. So novel, no one but a vindictive, Vermont tree-humper would feature it as a viable alternative.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

With those things off my amply man-boobed chest, let’s start.  The easiest way to explain what happened is through graphs.  Here goes.  Voter turnout is comparable to 2012.

voter-turnout

Everyone, and when I say everyone I mean male pundits, is yapping about the sainted white, working-class male.  A moment whilst I retch.  Here’s the deal – Democrats don’t deserve to be a party if they go chasing these unicorns of the voting world.  These voters are Republicans.  They are what was once called the Reagan Democrats.  They are solidly middle class.  They have voted Republican for three decades now.

In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the margin of victory in these three states was a tad above 107,000 – less than the attendance of a home Michigan football game.  To set the sights on these “yeti-like voters” instead of animating the growing and ideologically inclined voters is a fool’s errand.

Here’s what the distribution looks like:

vote-share-by-income

Hillary held her own.  She mostly did what she needed to do to cover for the winnowing of Obama’s support from 2012.  What happened?  White males over-performed.  No one thought this group would surpass Romney’s 2012 numbers, but they did in places no one suspected – the upper Midwest.

The polls were mostly right.  As more of the count comes in the national numbers are going to be well within the margin of error.  The state polls were the problem.  They undershot the Trump vote.  And the real Rosetta stone is this:late-deciders

According to the exit data, voters who decided in the final week broke for Trump by a 5 point margin. A modest advantage, not nearly enough to swing the election. But in the states where it mattered, the picture was very different. In Michigan late deciders favored Trump by 11 points. In Pennsylvania Trump carried them by 17 points. And in Wisconsin, a state few saw as truly in play, the fence-sitters- fully 14 percent of voters- broke for Trump nearly 2 to 1.

A pollster can’t tell you what they haven’t yet measured.  The Clinton algorithm had not yet calculated what had not yet occurred.  The “undecideds” are exactly just that – voters who have not yet decided.

Here’s a complete breakdown and comparison of the last four elections in a graphic format.  Take a few minutes and look at them, it is interesting data.

The drop off in minority votes was not offset by inroads in typically Republican voting blocs such as white women.  Hillary lost white women by 10% while winning black women by astronomical margins.hillary-open-arms

And so to bring this full circle – in the face of 25-years of white-hot conservative hatred, $120 Million in Republican investigations, an unending lava flow from the conservative infotainment complex, Putin and his KGB apparatus, James Comey and the rogue FBI apparatus, Julian Assange and Wikileaks, unending unfair negative media coverage, a Supreme Court that approved unlimited dark money and voter suppression, and social media that legitimized false propaganda, Hillary still won the popular vote.

Hillary didn’t win the Presidency because some fat white guys in MAGA ball caps in the upper Midwest decided it was a bridge too far for one of the world’s most admired women to have sent three emails with a (c) on three paragraphs via a private server.  May their sorry souls seek salvation before the consequences of their ignorance deliver judgment upon us all.  I guess I’m still having some anger issues.

More tomorrow.  Until then please favor us with your thoughts on any subject.

 

 

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35 Responses to "Where to start?"

An accurate picture of white women voters is more nuanced than what is generally reported in the MSM.

The majority of white women have voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 2004, and they have done so in greater proportions than they did this year. In 2012, 56% of white women voted for Mitt Romney. John McCain earned 55% of white women’s votes in 2008, and George W. Bush won the support of 55% of white women in 2004. Clinton actually fared slightly better among white women than Barack Obama did in 2012, earning 43% of their votes compared to the 42% for Barack Obama four years ago. In fact, Clinton outperformed Obama significantly among college-educated white women, earning 51% of their votes and besting Trump among this group by six points; in 2012, Mitt Romney held a six-point advantage against Obama among this group. In 2008, when Obama fared better among college-educated white women, he still earned just 52% of their votes. Moreover, Clinton won married women by 2 points, the first Democratic candidate to do so in 20 years.

http://presidentialgenderwatch.org/no-women-didnt-abandon-clinton-fail-win-support/

Prolix, you are such a wonderful writer.
I hope that someday you can devote yourself to writing and make your living that way.
I’m a fan.

I’m at work and haven’t read the post yet. Stay tuned for that!

But this made me laugh, roll my eyes and angry all at the same time. Apparently a lot of people who did not vote are not happy with the election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/16/a-lot-of-non-voters-are-mad-at-the-election-results-if-only-there-was-something-they-could-have-done/?Tid=sm_fb

@1, Luna, the slicing and dicing does reveal some very interesting nuances to the data. That is an important point between married and unmarried and between college educated and non-college educated, but while Hillary did better than in the past she lost women overall 53% to 43%. Among some portions of that demographic she did see historical highs in support. The really difficult part and I think definitive part, is that white, non-college men crawled out in record numbers.

@2, thank you Sue. I’m a fan of yours.

@4, Prolix, I also am appalled that so many women betrayed their own interests and voted for a misogynist racist facist. I also can’t understand white men or the 29%-30% of Latino men who voted for Trump.

But she did not lose women overall — it’s only in the less educated white women category does Trump get more.

Clinton won 54% of women’s votes on Tuesday night, a performance on par with Democratic presidential candidates in the past two decades. More specifically, the majority of women cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton in 23 of the 28 states where exit polls are available. In fact, if only women voted, Trump’s success in at least 10 battleground states (AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, OH, PA, TX, WI) would have been reversed.

http://presidentialgenderwatch.org/no-women-didnt-abandon-clinton-fail-win-support/

A majority of women backed Clinton over Donald Trump, 54 percent to 42 percent. ….
Still, at least one thing is clear: Clinton did win women voters. Not only did she win women voters overall, but she succeeded in winning women who might have voted for the Republican candidate in any other election. Those votes weren’t enough to deliver Clinton victory…

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/hillary-clinton-white-women-vote/507422/

And sadly, in that last article from the Atlantic, there is this female scumbag telling us how she feels:

There isn’t any perfect person on the planet. I heard that he said something about groping women, and I’m thinking, Okay, No. 1, I think that’d be great. I like getting groped! I’m heterosexual. I’m a woman, and when a guy gropes me, I get groping on them! I grope them back. Groping is a healthy thing to do. When you’re heterosexual, you grope, okay? It’s a good thing.

Yep, she and her ilk threw herself into the car right after the drunk driver.

ooops, Spammy grabbed me. Two links in my comment?

That drunk in the gold sport-ute is gunning for us, too.

@6, Luna, you are free and I have lectured Spammy. It doesn’t do much good because it goes in one electron and out the other.

@6, I enjoy Jess McIntosh of Emily’s List. She tried to explain this the other night. Basically she said some voting patterns were just “electoral muscle memory.” That is a shame.

When I started out in my career, I worked for a woman politician. Since that time I have paid particular attention to the issue of lack of “sisterhood” among female politicians. I’ve tried hard to understand it. I’m not sure I will ever be successful.

As for that quote about the woman who likes to get her “grope on” with strangers, I hope if she has children someone else raises them.

Thanks, Prolix!

I’ve given up trying to understand Republicans and DINOs. And I’m shuddering at the thought of that brainwashed groper woman ever having children.

Re #3:” One last word about that Independent Vermonter who now believes he can take over the party he still refuses to join – selecting a Black Muslim who has another full-time job to win over middle class white males is a novel approach. So novel, no one but a vindictive, Vermont tree-humper would feature it as a viable alternative.”

Too true! And are we so desperate we are going to court the WMC males instead of maintaining and strengthening the voters we already have. I am begging the Dem leadership to stand strong with the base we already have and oppose with all our strength the incompetent Cheeto.

Here’s an interesting graphic:

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

@11, MsMass, I’m with you. I just don’t understand chasing voters who have no real affinity as opposed to motivating those who are natural “fits” to come out and vote. It seems like a no brainer to me.

Hillary’s popular vote lead now up to 1.2 million with 130.6 million votes counted and lots more to go.

From the buckley club article:

The exits lend further credence to this theory. When voters were asked which candidate quality mattered most, a strong plurality cited ability to “bring change.” These voters preferred Trump, 83 to 14.

They are about to get hit in the face with “change” and I”m betting they won’t like it when they see the “change” that’s gonna happen.

@prolix:

Your #3 above: selecting a Black Muslim who has another full-time job to win over middle class white males is a novel approach.

Those would be the “Regan Democrats” right? If that’s the case and they’re lost anyway, why bother to try to win over this group? As you said they aren’t Regan Democrats anymore, they’re Republicans.

@16, exactly. What I’m hearing from interviews and Ellison is actually talking about targeting these “Republican-lite” voters, is a useless effort. What I think is happening they are talking up an imaginary result in search of “their solution.” Their solution is Bernietics — the politics of Bernie. That is not the future of the Democratic party. If it is, count me out.

@18, Suppose we could start a betting pool on how soon the orangutang follows his boyfriend’s example of strong leadership.

Deities help us.

@12, that is interesting information.

@18 & 19, new federal legislation — no person with skin the complexion of Dannon Whipped Yogurt Orangescile Flavor are forever exempt from actions at law and rock, paper, scissors.

@20, the belt buckle of the Trump Belt is Michigan where the Yam said that the car industry should be allowed to go broke. Let’s just see how long that Trump Belt holds up.

Great post Prolix. Yes to all of it. I happened to catch Axlerod and the two pundits on New Day talking about the future of the Democratic party and the WWC. Axlerod actually said ‘Hillary had a thousand plans, but it was all trees and no forest. The message came across as we don’t need you in our coalition.’ That guy must be tripping. I think he was having a flashback to Obama’s campaign in ’08.

Hillary went all over the country talking about infrastructure. Those guys hanging under bridges bolting and welding giant steel beams are not IT techs, they’re working class. How about getting money and jobs to Flint to replace those pipes – plumbers, electricians, ditch diggers – working class. How about her plan for impoverished coal mining country where she wanted to create jobs in the clean energy industries. Who would be building and installing solar panels, etc.? Working class. And yes, they would be mostly white. It’s not Hillary’s fault the media would never show her rallies while she talked about policy. They’d rather train their cameras on Trump’s empty podium for an hour while showing Hillary in a little box in the corner with her voice muted.

So I see CNN is covering Michael Flynn’s mishandling of classified information. Also, they managed to dredge up radio conversations between Bannon and Trump. Too bad they couldn’t bother to find this few weeks ago. Guess they were too busy waiting around for Comey’s statement.

Speaking of Flynn, he is now National Security advisor. No Senate confirmation needed for that position.

Great post, Prolix!

@24 – Had I been eating or drinking when I read that story earlier today, I would have done a spit take!! What else did Der Drumpf falselyaccuse Hillary of, that he and his merry band of fascists were actually.doing?

@23, Axelrod has taken to his commentator persona in the David Gergen mode — I’m too smart to like anything, therefore I must look down my nose at most everything.

He needs to get over himself.

@25, according to most everyone who knew Flynn prior to this campaign are saying, “The body snatchers got him.” Perhaps the body snatchers drink lots of vodka and know hackers who go by “Fancy Bear,” and “Cozy Bear”.

@27, thanks MB.

Our irony genes are going to be used up by six months into Drumpf’s reign.

I also saw Karen Finney on CNN with Bergman and Kate Whoever. They asked why Hillary lost. Karen talked about the sexism and misogyny. They looked skeptical. She talked about Comey. More frowns. Bergman said “Do you REALLY think sexism had anything to do with it?” Karen said ‘ oh yeah, even during the primaries, the sexism from the Bernie Bros was so bad, many Hillary supporters set up private facebook groups to get away from it’. She went on to talk more about the Bernie Bros. You should have seen the looks on Bergman and Kate’s faces. It was hilarious. Karen also got a dig in to the media for their part in Hill’s loss. They frowned deeper. I cheered!

Wonder whatever happened to David Bossie, that Citizens United guy who was brought into Trump’s campaign at the same time as Bannon. I wonder if he’s still lurking around.

@32, Bossie is still around. I think he’s the First Arse Cheek separator for the royal cleansings. I’ve seen him in group shots around the Trump Tower collective — the knees of his suits seem worn.

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Great post Prolix! Love the bar illustration, its very apt.

@26, me too.

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