The Black Swan has roosted…
Posted November 10, 2016on:
Folks, tumbling through the stages of grief I find myself smack-dab in the middle of a state fair, prize-winning depression. I slid right through shock, denial, and anger. Spent no time with bargaining because there’s nothing with which to bargain. And I’ll never go into “Hope” unless I find myself, for some inexplicable reason, sightseeing in Arkansas.
Wherever you are on this spectrum, don’t rush. When you get to depression, look to the left and I’ll be the sad troll in the corner repeatedly mumbling, “Why?” That is the question consuming me.
We can parse and cipher the demographic data. We can point our fingers at the pollsters, but they were just reporting numbers. Polls don’t vote. We can fret and fume, but the plot line is relatively simple. White folks without college degrees, particularly men, turned out in record numbers. Support for Hillary from poor folks making under $30,000, and support from minorities fell dramatically from Obama’s 2012 numbers. That’s the story.
Polling was within the margin of error as to the popular vote. Hillary is winning the popular vote. For Democrats, that’s six times in the last seven elections.
Individual state polling was faulty. Even wringing the “noise” out of the studies by polling aggregation didn’t sound an alarm. Statistical regression analyses didn’t isolate the aggression of white, disaffected middle class males.
The most concise answer is this: Pollsters missed the weighting formula because they didn’t take into account the increase in disaffected white guys who crawled out from under their rocks to vote for the Orangeloupe and people wasting their votes on a protest vote for a pothead and a funkdafied nutzoid.
It’s just that simple.
What fascinates me is why people of color would vote for someone who turned “dog whistles” into a bullhorn? Why did white women, by 10%, vote for an admitted sexual predator? Why did 27% of Latinos vote for the Xenophobe-Elect? Why did 23% of Millennials vote for a climate change denier who will have them in designer Fallujah-wear before the calendar turns to an even-numbered year? One-quarter of the Yam’s voters said he was NOT qualified to be President.
For people of color, I hope you enjoy a federal “stop and frisk program” administered by Attorney General Nosferatu Giuliani. For ladies, get used to a “Race Bannon-looking” mother-clucker poking around your lady parts at the Gyno-Garage – that is if you can find one after Pence outlaws them. For Latinos, Skyping with family members is easy and fun. For Millennials, the dry desert air does wonders for the complexion. For those who voted for someone even though they believed he was unqualified to occupy the most powerful office on the planet, no need to call ahead, your place in hell is reserved. And by the way, don’t expect to get a thank you from the top one-tenth of one-percent for their tax cuts. Enjoy the Trump Administration.
Perhaps, just perhaps, I’m not quite through the anger stage.
People chewing on unicorn turds keep saying the Presidency can make the man. To those people I say, “Get your head out of the unicorn’s arse.” What the Presidency does, like any anointment of power, is bring out what is already in the person. If a person in their 8th decade is a racist, misogynistic, xenophobe, with a heaping helping of power, he is going to be more of what he is. Not less.
Here’s my best guess to answer the why question: The groundwork for der Drumpf was plowed eight years ago by Mitch McTurtle. I’ve said on these pages before, “Mitch is a political strategist without equal.” When he charted “gridlock” the night of Obama’s inauguration, he began writing of the script that would eventually bring us the Mango Macaque.
McTurtle plays the long game – so much so his biography is entitled, The Long Game. There is nothing more evil than purposefully slowing the economic recovery for political gain. That is what the Republicans did by blocking jobs programs, an infrastructure program, and diluting the Economic Recovery Act. The people impacted first and foremost are those least able to transition, under-educated white males.
The group McTurtle targeted was originally called “Reagan Democrats,” then they became garden variety Republicans, and now they have devolved into Trump populists. They are projecting their troubles onto Washington for not listening to them. They are “hate seeking” missiles.
From the birth of the Tea Party the month after Obama took the oath to last Tuesday, these people have been fomenting an unrequited, unfocused hate for something. Hillary became the target.
Slow economic recovery – blame Hillary. Flat wages – blame Hillary. Jobs disappearing because of technology – blame Hillary. Appalachian coal being replaced by cheaper natural gas – blame Hillary. Ascendant minorities – blame Hillary. Not enough tasty unicorn turds – blame Hillary.
These people were the low information voters weaponized by Trump and activated by Obama when he campaigned so strongly for his legacy. Nothing activated these weaponized low information voters more than Obama being on the campaign trail. It was salt in their wounds of not being heard, being non-ascendant, and fearing the loss of power to growing minorities. The not-too-secret activation code was: Gargantuan White Privilege.
And they voted. Voted in higher numbers than anyone believed possible.
McTurtle’s gridlock plan was written to neutralize and cripple Obama by 2012. When it didn’t work because of minority support for Obama, McTurtle doubled down. Eight years of anger was awaiting Hillary last Tuesday.
That anger combined with twenty-five years of Hillary bashing, $125 Million of Republican investigations, 125 minutes of evening news email coverage versus 35 minutes of policy coverage, Jim Comey, and Putie Poot’s hackers painted a huge target on Hillary for these hate seeking missiles. Her impeccable qualifications, her elegant intelligence, her three stellar debate performances, and a near perfect campaign could not overcome the hate.
Psychological biases blinding people to the occurrence of a rare event’s role in history is a hallmark of a Black Swan event. Collectively, we never thought someone as immeasurably unqualified as Trump could be elected President. We were wrong. One person not surprised will again be the Majority Leader of the Senate. It turned out to be part of his “long game”.
What’s on your mind today?
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