Coasting into the weekend
Posted August 12, 2016on:
Good Friday to you Widdershins!
I titled this “Coasting into the weekend” but as I write this Thursday evening, Friday may bring fireworks when the RNC and Trump have what’s been described as a “Come to Jesus” meeting. I’m hoping that there is lots of screaming and yelling and accusations flying back and forth and naturally that would just be from the Trump folks. We’ll find out after the meeting when the details start leaking out as they inevitably do.
I’ve bookmarked a few items that caught my eye over the last several days and thought I’d share them with you in the event you had not seen these.
Could the race already be over?
It seems like that might be a possibility with results from this batch of polls that are in an article from Vox.
- A national Fox News poll released Wednesday evening shows Clinton beating Trump by 10 percentage points, 49 percent to 39 percent.
- a McClatchy-Marist poll released Thursday shows Clinton ahead by a massive 15 points — real landslide territory and easily the best recent poll she’s gotten, with her at 48 percent compared to Trump’s 33 percent.
- In Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall has a new poll showing him trailing Clinton by 11 points — 49 percent to 38 percent.
- In Florida a Suffolk poll found Clinton ahead of Trump in a head-to-head matchup by 6 points. (More about Florida below)
You can read more at the Vox link.
From The Daily Beast comes this article by Michael Tomasky wondering whether Florida is even a swing state anymore.
You will also hear them say a kajillion times until Election Day that Florida is a swing state. Well, yes. It has been historically. But the combination of massive demographic changes since 2012 and Trump’s anorexic performance among college-educated whites makes me wonder if Florida is a swing state this year at all. And while the Republicans might nominate a normal candidate in 2020, the state’s demography is galloping away from the GOP.
Tomasky says there are a few reasons for this and primary is demography.
Florida’s minority population is now above 40 percent, with the Hispanic population at around 25 percent. In addition, Hispanics are registering to vote in large numbers, and they’re heavily Democratic.
Another factor in the demography matter in Florida is the large number of Puerto Ricans that are immigrating to the state:
the change is also because of a huge influx of Puerto Ricans into the state. There are now about 1 million Puerto Ricans in Florida. (Cubans, at 1.2 million, now barely outnumber Puerto Ricans.) And remember, Puerto Ricans are American citizens. They can vote quite easily. And they vote roughly 80 percent Democratic. Or against Trump, more.
One recent Florida poll put Trump at 13 percent among the state’s Hispanics. If that’s close to right, Clinton gets 80 to 85 percent of the fifth of the overall vote that’s Latino, and 95 percent of the 14 percent that’s African American. That’s 30 percent right there, and it would mean she’d need only around 35 percent of the white vote to win, maybe even a little less.
There is another good article about the Florida demographics that you can read here. It’s from earlier this year but still worth a read.
So we can say “thanks” to SM and her group of Hillary supporters and volunteers. They have taken care of Florida for us.
Politico had this article up earlier in the month concerning the Clinton campaign and Virginia. Apparently the campaign has cancelled a number of ad buys in the Old Dominion so does that mean the commonwealth is safely in the “D” column? Maybe not.
POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average gives Clinton a 5.2 point lead in Virginia — with the two newest public surveys, conducted last month, before Clinton chose Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate, showing her with leads of 7 points and 9 points over Trump.
A Clinton campaign official, speaking on background to discuss campaign strategy, stressed that the campaign could return to the airwaves in both Virginia and Colorado at any moment. And the official added that voters in those two states may still see some Clinton spots on television: The campaign is advertising across the country on cable and on NBC’s Olympics telecasts over the next two weeks.
Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012. Let’s hope the streak continues.
Lastly in my list of links, there’s this article from Salon about the craziness and conspiracies just being the new norm in the Republican Party. As an example:
“Red Eye,” the popular Fox News overnight show, had on as a guest one Mike Cernovich, a Men’s Rights Activist and well-known figure in the “alt-right,” the name with which society has rebranded the far-right collection of racists and white supremacists from which Trump draws a fair amount of his support. Cernovich has trafficked in conspiracy theories and his Twitter feed is a mass of rape apologia and paranoia that the Democratic Party is going to assassinate him.
Cernovich is so terrible that the producers of “Red Eye” felt compelled afterwards to say that they had made a mistake in booking him. But that doesn’t answer the question of how they found him in the first place. It’s simple, really: He swims in the same sewers as the rest of the eager up-and-coming right-wingers at Fox News.
There are a few other goodies in the Salon article including news about Patricia Smith, the mother of a Benghazi casualty who was sad to watch live at the Republican Convention. She is suing Hillary in a wrongful death case and:
Smith is now being represented in her lawsuit by Larry Klayman, a prominent birther who has made a career out of hounding Democratic presidents and other party figures with nuisance lawsuits in between marching on the White House to demand Barack Obama resign over his alleged “eligibility fraud.” (Translation: the president wouldn’t show his birth certificate.)
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Lastly, R.I.P. Pete. We know you’re making music up there with Professor Long Hair, Allen Toussaint, Al Hirt and so many others.
What’s on your minds today Widdershins? Add your thoughts below.
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