Bet on her…
Posted May 27, 2016on:
Good morning Widdershinners. We’ve made it to the doorstep of a long weekend. Fredster has a great weekend post in the hopper all ready and raring to go, but before then I thought we should end the week with a wee bit of tonic.
Friends it has been a rough week. The Trumpster fire has burned brightly this week. Among other things, he has called the Clintons murderers which does nothing other than again bring longstanding pain to the Foster family.
Second, Bernie Sanders has figured out another way to embarrass and harangue Hillary with the complicit help of Trump by calling for a debate. The shamelessness of Sanders is without bounds. I used to think it was that lump of ambulatory smegma who calls itself Jeff Weaver, but I realized it isn’t him. This has to come from Sanders himself – he’s common and as we say in the south, “Trifling.”
The other news of the week was the long-awaited State Department Inspector General’s report on Hillary’s email. From the headlines and all the attention, you’d think every time Hillary hit send on an email a baby seal was clubbed. It was much ado about nothing at all.
First, it is “beyond contempt that a politician would use a family tragedy to further his candidacy,” so says Vince Foster’s sister on behalf of the family. As I mentioned Wednesday, where does Trump go from here? It looks like Whitewater is up next. How do we know, because of auto-fill in an email address line. This is a group of people who purports to be charting Trump’s march toward being Commander-in-Chief – the gang who couldn’t shoot straight much less address an email.
Second, the media has been all abuzz about the Public Policy Institute of California’s poll showing Hillary leading Sanders by only 2%. Here’s the deal: In my opinion, the PPIC poll is crap. Its unweighted sampling for Democrats has a margin of error of 5.7% and even greater for Republicans. There are other problems too many to go into in this short post, but trust me, this PPIC poll has little to no predictive value.
A poll that does have predictive value is the SurveyUSA poll. You probably haven’t heard about it. It shows Hillary with an 18% lead over BerningBum. The reason it is predictive is that last month’s SurveyUSA poll had Hillary at a plus 19%. The methodology is sound. It also accounts for Bernie’s Hail Mary of debating Trump. He needs something to keep him in the news.
One other common misnomer getting far too much play in the media: Bernie does better with Independents than Hillary. That is not true. In a paragraph here’s the truth:
Independents aren’t truly independent. Most Independents are either shy Democrats or shy Republicans who have a deep-seated voting preference. Just 23% of Independents are truly Independents. Of that 23%, Sanders had a favorability of 35% and Hillary had a favorability of 34%.
From where does the mistaken belief arise that Bernie is so much more popular with Independents than Hillary? It is simple: In the 41% of Independents who have a Democratic preference, who claim to have a Democratic preference without caring to call themselves Democrats, Sanders has a 20% favorability lead with these people.
Just for a moment, let’s think about this: These people, who claim to have Democratic ideals, but are too shy to call themselves Democrats and want to reshape the Democratic Party favor BerningBum Sanders. They are BerningBum – desirous of hijacking the Democratic Party and overhauling it to conform with their own preferences without showing an ounce of commitment to the party or down ballot races where the real work is done.
So the next time you hear the lie that Bernie does better with Independents know this: Bernie does better with Independents who are commitment-phobic – those who won’t put a ring on it, but sure will try to “eff” it up.
The last thing to brighten our weekend is this: The State Department IG report vindicates Hillary. As Forbes says:
First, and foremost, it is simply not about classified email. It is about regular, ordinary, run-of-the-mill, unclassified email. Yet it is the classified email, not these messages, that are the focus of the FBI investigation of Clinton. In other words, the report does not, and cannot, talk about the most serious issues. It is about a sideshow. [snip]
Certainly, the widely reported fact that it’s an 83-page report makes it sound like it is big. But half is appendices. Half of the rest is not about the Secretary’s emails, but about cybersecurity. Of the two-dozen pages that are even remotely about Secretaries’ emails, a lot is taken up by retracing the dreary history of records and archival policy. The remainder involves all the secretaries going back two decades – not just Clinton and Powell, who are alike, but also ones of no particular interest, like Madeleine Albright, Condoleeza Rice, and also John Kerry. There’s just not a lot of new facts about Clinton.
Look at the press coverage. You will not find mentions of major new facts in the IG report.
Indeed, look at the press coverage. There’s nothing to see other than a big fat nothing-burger fired on the coals of a media narrative to make this Presidential race close and worth watching.
So folks, this wasn’t a bad week. Talking heads will tell us it was, but we need only to have a little of Hillary’s resilience. Personally, I believe all things happen for a reason and whether it be connectedness, synchronicity or karma – it is Hillary’s fate to defeat the forces that have been devoted to destroying her for thirty years.
If anyone is betting, never bet against anyone who grinds away day after day, who gets up after having been knocked down, and is never, ever afraid. Bet on Hillary.
What’s on your mind today?
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