The Widdershins

Bet on her…

Posted on: May 27, 2016

Good morning Widdershinners.  We’ve made it to the doorstep of a long weekend.  Fredster has a great weekend post in the hopper all ready and raring to go, but before then I thought we should end the week with a wee bit of tonic. Trumpster Fire

Friends it has been a rough week.  The Trumpster fire has burned brightly this week.  Among other things, he has called the Clintons murderers which does nothing other than again bring longstanding pain to the Foster family.

Second, Bernie Sanders has figured out another way to embarrass and harangue Hillary with the complicit help of Trump by calling for a debate.  The shamelessness of Sanders is without bounds.  I used to think it was that lump of ambulatory smegma who calls itself Jeff Weaver, but I realized it isn’t him.  This has to come from Sanders himself – he’s common and as we say in the south, “Trifling.”

The other news of the week was the long-awaited State Department Inspector General’s report on Hillary’s email.  From the headlines and all the attention, you’d think every time Hillary hit send on an email a baby seal was clubbed.  It was much ado about nothing at all.

First, it is “beyond contempt that a politician would use a family tragedy to further his candidacy,” so says Vince Foster’s sister on behalf of the family.  As I mentioned Wednesday, where does Trump go from here?  It looks like Whitewater is up next.  How do we know, because of auto-fill in an email address line.  This is a group of people who purports to be charting Trump’s march toward being Commander-in-Chief – the gang who couldn’t shoot straight much less address an email.

Second, the media has been all abuzz about the Public Policy Institute of California’s poll showing Hillary leading Sanders by only 2%.  Here’s the deal:  In my opinion, the PPIC poll is crap.  Its unweighted sampling for Democrats has a margin of error of 5.7% and even greater for Republicans.  There are other problems too many to go into in this short post, but trust me, this PPIC poll has little to no predictive value.

Bernie elephant trunkA poll that does have predictive value is the SurveyUSA poll.  You probably haven’t heard about it.  It shows Hillary with an 18% lead over BerningBum.  The reason it is predictive is that last month’s SurveyUSA poll had Hillary at a plus 19%.  The methodology is sound.  It also accounts for Bernie’s Hail Mary of debating Trump.  He needs something to keep him in the news.

One other common misnomer getting far too much play in the media:  Bernie does better with Independents than Hillary.  That is not true.  In a paragraph here’s the truth:

Independents aren’t truly independent.  Most Independents are either shy Democrats or shy Republicans who have a deep-seated voting preference.  Just 23% of Independents are truly Independents.  Of that 23%, Sanders had a favorability of 35% and Hillary had a favorability of 34%.

From where does the mistaken belief arise that Bernie is so much more popular with Independents than Hillary?  It is simple:  In the 41% of Independents who have a Democratic preference, who claim to have a Democratic preference without caring to call themselves Democrats, Sanders has a 20% favorability lead with these people.

Just for a moment, let’s think about this:  These people, who claim to have Democratic ideals, but are too shy to call themselves Democrats and want to reshape the Democratic Party favor BerningBum Sanders.  They are BerningBum – desirous of hijacking the Democratic Party and overhauling it to conform with their own preferences without showing an ounce of commitment to the party or down ballot races where the real work is done.

So the next time you hear the lie that Bernie does better with Independents know this:  Bernie does better with Independents who are commitment-phobic – those who won’t put a ring on it, but sure will try to “eff” it up.

The last thing to brighten our weekend is this:  The State Department IG report vindicates Hillary.  As Forbes says:

First, and foremost, it is simply not about classified email. It is about regular, ordinary, run-of-the-mill, unclassified email. Yet it is the classified email, not these messages, that are the focus of the FBI investigation of Clinton. In other words, the report does not, and cannot, talk about the most serious issues. It is about a sideshow.  [snip]

Certainly, the widely reported fact that it’s an 83-page report makes it sound like it is big. But half is appendices. Half of the rest is not about the Secretary’s emails, but about cybersecurity. Of the two-dozen pages that are even remotely about Secretaries’ emails, a lot is taken up by retracing the dreary history of records and archival policy. The remainder involves all the secretaries going back two decades – not just Clinton and Powell, who are alike, but also ones of no particular interest, like Madeleine Albright, Condoleeza Rice, and also John Kerry. There’s just not a lot of new facts about Clinton.

Look at the press coverage. You will not find mentions of major new facts in the IG report.

Hillary Rodham Clinton Signs Copies Of Her Book 'Hard Choices' In New York

Indeed, look at the press coverage.  There’s nothing to see other than a big fat nothing-burger fired on the coals of a media narrative to make this Presidential race close and worth watching.

So folks, this wasn’t a bad week.  Talking heads will tell us it was, but we need only to have a little of Hillary’s resilience.  Personally, I believe all things happen for a reason and whether it be connectedness, synchronicity or karma – it is Hillary’s fate to defeat the forces that have been devoted to destroying her for thirty years.

If anyone is betting, never bet against anyone who grinds away day after day, who gets up after having been knocked down, and is never, ever afraid.  Bet on Hillary.

What’s on your mind today?

 

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75 Responses to "Bet on her…"

Great post Prolix! Betting on Hillary, when she’s backed by the full force of the Democratic Party establishment, is a no-brainer. She has never lost to a Republican. Ever.

I agree, that poll is cr*p. MOE is really high!

The sampling error for unweighted likely voter subgroups is larger. For the 552 Democratic Primary likely voters, it is ±5.7 percent; for the 284 Republican Primary likely voters, it is ±7.4 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing.

I would agree with the prediction that the margin of victory for Hillary will be in the double digits. It could even be a blowout like New York. 🙂

Not a bad thought to go into the weekend with…

At The Confluence, yesterday, I wrote that Hillary must win because “she’s the woman who will crush the serpent under her heel.*
*Quoting from the Catholic bible (yes, there is one.) The Protestant bible says the seed of the woman will crush the serpent under his heel.
Guess which one I prefer?

@2: Two Miraculous Medals for Sweet Sue! 🙂

MB, at 538, that PPIC poll was the only one that showed her ahead by that small of a margin. But naturally the tawking heads latched onto just that one poll to crow about.

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Sanders supporters file another lawsuit in CA. I’m glad to see the City Attorney plans to fight it aggressively.

The activists are seeking sweeping injunctive relief in their suit, including provisions to force 58 counties to segregate ballots already cast by unaffiliated voters; to allow “re-votes” by those voters for presidential primary candidates; and to extend the state’s voter registration deadline—which passed on May 23 for eligibility to vote in the June 7 primary—until election day itself.

http://www.sfcityattorney.org/2016/05/26/sanders-backers-will-seek-emergency-injunction-federal-court-friday-calif-primary/

@6: That suit doesn’t have a chance in hell.

@1, thanks MB. There are other questions I have about the poll. One is how they screened for likely voters. The sample is most likely contaminated. Another red herring is that the poll was timed at 19 minutes. No reputable polling agent, I mean no one, runs a poll of that duration. What happens is that by the end, people are telling you anything to get you off the phone. It’s a bad poll.

Shinners!!! Back on the ‘puter, work has been a little nuts, kid unit’s grad stuff, crap, bills, etc…CALGON??

Anyways, I said “to hell with the diet” and I’m wolfing down some chocolate chip ice cream and I bumped into this TIme article from the President of Assholia himself, Sen. Sanders.

Link here:
http://time.com/4348664/bernie-sanders-time-interview-democratic-party-hillary-clinton/

BUT

Here’s an excerpt if an aneurysm is about to pop and you want the jist:


As a young person—

I don’t want to waste my time. Does what I’m saying interest you—

Yes, Senator. I’d like to know what it means—

Alright! I’m getting to what it means. I don’t want to waste my time. You’re part of the corporate media—you’re a nice guy, but I don’t want to waste my time. What I’m saying here is in fact enormously important.

Why do you think we’re doing so well with young people and doing rather poorly with old people? What do you think media has to do with that?

CALGON?? HILLARY??? Take all of us away from this raving azz-whole!

Donald Trump’s statement on debating Bernie… I sh!t you not.

Based on the fact that the Democratic nominating process is totally rigged and Crooked Hillary Clinton and Deborah Wasserman Schultz will not allow Bernie Sanders to win, and now that I am the presumptive Republican nominee, it seems inappropriate that I would debate the second place finisher. Likewise, the networks want to make a killing on these events and are not proving to be too generous to charitable causes, in this case, women’s health issues. Therefore, as much as I want to debate Bernie Sanders – and it would be an easy payday – I will wait to debate the first place finisher in the Democratic Party, probably Crooked Hillary Clinton, or whoever it may be.

@2, Sue, I like the “crushing under her heel” — I’m guessing that includes Louboutins.

So a Trump/Sanders debate was to help women’s issues. HAHAHA!!

@4, Fredster, you are exactly right. All I have seen today are references to the PPIC poll — not a mention outside the California press of the SurveyUSA poll with it being the fresher of the two.

@6 & 7, agree completely. No chance — what irreparable harm is there prior to the votes being cast — that is the standard for an injunction. It is nothing more than a publicity stunt like Sanders has done from the get go. It is a 1980 tactic by a 1970’s mind acting like time stopped in the 1960s.

BTW Prolix, your post reminded me of this 🙂

@9, SM, we’ve missed you. We understand there’s been big celebration with your graduate. Glad you are back!

@13: Yep, it doesn’t play to the narrative they want to sell.

Now when she crushes him or even just wins by 5 points, will even a single one of the “tawkers” mention those other polls? Naaaahhhh.

@14: Well you’re the lawyer in the clan Widdershins but the first thing I thought when reading that link was “how do you unring the bell here?”.

@10, the sad part is, Trump and BerningBum have accomplished what they set out to do — draw attention to themselves and give one another talking points from which to take pot shots at Hillary. If the truth be known, that is exactly what the back channel talks were all about — how can we hurt Hillary.

@16, no celebrations per se, budget won’t allow, just mostly work and the commute, allergies, mundane boring stuff.

BTW, could you email me? I have something to send you, Fredster and MB 🙂 .

Randy Rainbow interviews Herr Drumpf. Notice the button on Randy’s jacket lapel.

@18, the thing that I find most entertaining about all these suits by Sanders and his pissant lawyers is that each and every one of these suits are premised upon the theory that the voters aren’t smart enough to know anything about voting. They are starting with the premise, they all must be dumb and voting incorrectly, therefore, the only way to fix it is take their votes back and tell them to vote for BerningBum.

Last I checked, that was the way they voted in banana republics, the kind where socialists installed themselves, not the clothing stores with the unhelpful workers.

It’s funny how no one is mentioning those 17 other polls at the fivethirtyeight link.

@20, SM, check your email.

@21, Randy Rainbow is hilarious.

@21 LOL I’m not gonna vote for you. I just like the beading. It’s so pretty.

OK, Prolix 🙂 ! BTW, here’s where I saw that Time piece with scathing takedown from Melissa “Shakesville” McEwan:

http://bluenationreview.com/bernie-sanders-nobody-appointed-you-savior-of-the-democratic-party/

@23, and notice the lack of weight they have subscribed to the PPIC poll as compared to the others. I’m no statistician, but that pretty much sums it up by those who do such things for a living.

@27, Melissa is exactly right in her essay. At what point did the Democratic Party decide we had lost our way, were hopelessly wandering about in a fog, and needed Bernie to strip us of our beliefs and replace them with his philosophies. I don’t remember agreeing to that, but then I drink — sometimes too much.

@29, and this was the “BOOM! POW!” moment:

“You are apparently suffering from the misapprehension that you’re a special snowflake who’s uniquely immune to this treatment. You seem to imagine that, because none of these personal issues became media fodder during the primary, they are simply of no interest. But you’re utterly mistaken. You’ve been given a pass because the media, for the most part, hate Hillary and because the Republicans believe you’d be infinitely easier to beat.

So, not only do you appear to know very little about the Democratic Party and the people in it, you don’t even know this basic truth about yourself. We’re supposed to take advice and censure from a man who doesn’t even understand a most basic truth about his own candidacy? HARD PASS.

LMAO! You know what happens to special snowflakes? They melt faster.

Did y’all hear what Rosie O’Donnell had to say about Trump this week?

“I would rather give birth to a flaming iguana while taking a sh*t,” she says. “I hate him. I hate him. I’m not going to say his name.”

LMAO!

I’ll be damned. I switch channel over to Hardball and the on the bottom is POLL: CLINTON,SANDERS NECK-AND-NECK IN CALIFORNIA. Grrrrr!!

But what about the other polls Tweety???

@11, Prolix, hilarious.
You know Hillary wears Comfort Strides.

OMG, PLEASE, OH PLEASE watch this Bernie Sanders interview with Univision in California. It’s in Spanish with English subtitles. Please, just please see him answer the question how hard-left policies have hurt Latin America:

http://www.mrctv.org/videos/bernie-hits-bump-univision-speechless-socialism-s-failures

@2: Fredster, only if the medals were blessed at Medjugorje.
Seriously, I’m lapsed, relapsed and prolapsed.

BTW, sorry for the source, it’s a proto-conservative Latino blog, but it’s the only place where I found a video with translation for the non español speakers

News flash! According to the gospel of Gawker, that thing on the Dumpsterfire’s head is a weave.

His droogs may not care if he shoots someone on Fifth Ave, but how much you want to bet his poll numbers will *dive*if the facts come out about that cotton candy glued (excuse me “microcylindered”) to that old baloney he uses for a head.

Sweet Sue@36: LOL! Those might be difficult to get.

I could get them from the shrine in believe-it-or-not, Missouri.

http://www.amm.org/

quioxote@38: I saw that the other day and apparently that weave is high-maintenance also.

This may not link right but I’ll try. Sanders challenges credentials of Gov Malloy and Barney Frank on their committee appointments at the Convention.

***************************************************
GAgal, I changed it to a link that goes to the Maddow site. (they could have scanned the damned thing and put it in a pdf). ~~~Fredster~~~

@35, SM, his answer, “Of course, I’m interested, but I’m running for President of the United States.”

What a loser!

@36, LOL.

Warning this is kinda hard to watch. I got it from Mother Jones.

@41, and it begins. In the alternative as a remedy, they are going to have a floor fight right off the bat. They know the end is nigh and this is how the next two months is going to be spent — watching BerningBum, Weaver, and his lawyers throw shade for attention.

This is ugly and it is going to get worse.

@41, here’s an interesting tidbit. Brad Deutsch, BerningBum’s lawyer, specializes in Political Law, Communications Law, and:

Brad is a member of GSB’s Cannabis Industry Group, whose experienced attorneys work across multiple disciplines to address emergent legal needs in this nascent, highly regulated industry.

Now that is a turn-of-phrase, “nascent, highly regulated industry.” We weren’t that creative at college.

Brad is a member of GSB’s Cannabis Industry Group, whose experienced attorneys work across multiple disciplines to address emergent legal needs in this nascent, highly regulated industry.

Translation, please?

@47, he’s a pot lawyer, a weed counselor, an herb consigliere.

GSB is the law firm and they have a “weed section.”

Just spit ballin’ here, but with BerningBum’s latest gambit to kick Barney Frank off the DNC convention committee — let’s take bets on Bernie’s percentage of the primary vote from San Francisco and Marin Counties. I say a negative 25.

The reaction on Reddit has been merciless. Bernie overplayed his hand. He’s about to learn the extent of his goodwill does not extend beyond that of a hero of the Democratic Party.

@49: Oh no I wouldn’t take that bet at all.

On the Kos diary about the letter some of the people were supporting Sanders but they were few and far between.

I don’t know squat about the rules of the convention but I wish his folks would start with this mess and then a gavel comes down immediately with the statement “Out of order” and that’s that.

They are really showing that there is no way to play nice with them.

This is slightly off track, but I was at 538 looking at that PPIC poll again. It took them 9 days to collect the sample. Nine days to capture 500 interviews with an unweighted sample — I’m not sure, but I think Chimps could have done it faster. They must have been stringing telephone lines as they went. A nine day interval is unacceptable.

@50, BerningBum is going to be nasty until he’s made to lay down and be quiet. He’s overplaying his hand just like a Republican would.

@51: Nine days because they weren’t getting the answers they truly wanted?

@53, maybe, or the ball bearing in the hamster wheel where they were getting their electricity burned out.

@54: LOL!

Oh and another off-topic: Maddow said some of the leaders in the Wyoming Dem Party have been getting nasty messages and emails. One person put one of the officer’s house address on a Facebook page saying to go show him what’s what or something like that.

She said representatives from both candidates and the DNC were supposed to be at the WY state convention Saturday. That’s not going to stop any of the Bernie brats because they have no respect for anyone.

And I also wonder how many of them have read the rules this time? 😉

@55, dem rulez, dem rulez. The BernieBros act up too much and they are liable to get their arses full of buckshot. Between the two of them there were barely 300 people who showed up at the caucuses this spring. Wyoming isn’t exactly what you would call a hotbed of librul politics.

I read the Melissa McEwen piece, which was very good, and then checked out the Time interview with Bernie that she talks about. He is such an asshole! He was so obnoxious to the interviewer. Bernie and his circus freaks remind me of some old European radical party from decades past. They are completely removed from reality. I was looking at a dkos piece today and one of them informed the kos-ians that they shouldn’t refer to Bernie as “Bernie” if they aren’t supporting him! And if they aren’t, then they should show him respect by referring to him as Senator Sanders!?!?

Special snowflakes? Oh yeah.

I see SM quoted the Time article upthread. SM, I did read about the Univision interview. Unbelievable.

@55 yeah, Bernie Bro behavior in NV has prompted all state party chairs in the remaining states to ask for DNC representatives to be present from here on out. Next up will be the Bros calling it a police state.

@57: Oh hell no! They’ve labeled the campaign as Bernie 2016 so it’s Bernie, damnit!

@55 & 59, HAHA! Good, I hope the dnc reps are covering all of these freaky caucus things. And lots of security.

@60, next they’ll be telling us to call him “his lordship” and genuflect when we see him on tv.

@62: Oh I’ve got names for him but Lordship ain’t one of them.

@63, LOL! I’ll bet you have some choice ones!

@64, yeah MB would not be a happy camper if I let loose. 😛

Dammit! You know what we really need? One of Madamab’s plays. Bernie and Trump debate on FOX(not)news.
Megyn Kelley: Senator Sanders, why haven’t you released your tax returns?
Sanders: I will release my tax returns when Hillary releases her trans… err..when Donald Trump releases his transcr…err..tax returns.
Megyn: Mr Trump, why haven’t you released your tax returns?
Trump: What Bernie says. That’s why.

@66: I think with her schedule the way it is now it would be difficult for her to get one of the plays done. That’s not saying it might not happen.

Hey GAgal, you didn’t mind me changing that letter from Bernie’s lawyers into a link did you? If so, I apologize.

Fredster, not at all. I thought (well hoped) it would be a link. That’s what I thought I was posting. I just don’t know till I try. My feelings will never be hurt if you or anyone changes or even deletes something I post.

@69: I think because it was an image file (.jpg) wordpress just put it in as an image. Maddow’s staff could have scanned the letter and created a pdf for the blog but perhaps they just didn’t have time before the show was to air. I’d still like to know how the letter came to her and not any other news show. Perhaps the sender thought it would get a friendly reception there?

I don’t think you have to worry about anything being deleted. Other than the occasional spam comment that slips through or an out-an-out troll I’ve never seen anything deleted here by me or anyone else.

I’m going to call it a night or is that morning? 😉

Good night and good morning. Me too.

Hey guys! Oh man, I do have a crazy schedule right now, but I have been thinking about a play. I just haven’t been visited by the muse recently. 😃 Hopefully something will strike soon.

I can’t even bring myself to read that Time article. It’s painful to see him trying to stop his inevitable decline into irrelevancy. He will literally say anything at this moment. He does not want to give up the cultish adulation of his followers and the addictive positive national attention he’s received for so long.

I am starting to see him as Norma Desmond; at the Convention, this disheveled old fool will claim he’s ready for his close-up, and no one will want to watch. Those who do will be horrified by what they see.

@72, how about, “Howard Beale transitioning to Norma Desmond”?

@73 – Your imagination is truly wicked. 😀

Those who do will be horrified by what they see

That sounds like The Picture of Dorian Gray!

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