The Widdershins

Activist Monday: Can Hillary Save Bernie from Himself?

Posted on: May 2, 2016

Good morning, all. I hope you had a lovely weekend with lots of Happy Happy, Joy Joy.

As for our friend #TheBernout, I think he may have had a few too many of those psychotropic mushrooms behind his cabin in the Vermont woods, because he seems to have lost any concept of how elections actually are supposed to work. He’s so far out on the fantasy limb, he could drop into a Dungeons and Dragons game without much of a leap.

His latest foray into the land of Make Believe is to claim that Hillary will not have enough pledged delegates to get to the magic number, so it’s going to be a contested convention.

In a news conference from Washington, D.C., on Sunday, the Vermont senator urged superdelegates from states where he has won the majority of the vote to reconsider their support.”It is virtually impossible for Secretary Clinton to reach the majority of convention delegates by June 14 with pledged delegates alone,” he said.

“She will need superdelegates to take her over the top. The convention will be a contested contest,” he said.

Ummmmm….no.

Just because she will “need superdelegates to take her over the top,” that doesn’t mean that the convention will be contested. To contest the convention, you would need to make a really strong argument to overrule the will of the pledged delegates, the superdelegates, and, most importantly, the voters. Hillary Clinton has demonstrated an overwhelming strength in all three of these areas, leading in the popular vote count by three million votes.

Still, #TheBernout must have some reason to think that he can come back far enough to erode her overwhelming lead, right? Other than the fact that she’s only a wimminz? Why yes, yes he does!

He said he has won state after state after a strong majority of younger people have voted for him, noting he hopes to win Indiana in next week’s primary. His campaign has sparked energy and excitement, he said, which will translate to a large voter turnout in November.

Sanders then detailed the delegate math, saying that to win the majority of pledged delegates, he needs 65 percent of the remaining delegates in the upcoming contests.

“There are 10 states remaining where we are going to be vigorously competing, plus the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam,” he said.

“We believe that we are in a very strong position to win many of these remaining contests and we have an excellent chance to win in California, the state with far and away the most delegates.”

He admitted that the road ahead is a “tough road to climb,” but not an “impossible road to climb.”

Again…no.

Sanders is trailing in the polls in every major upcoming contest, including California. Here’s how it’s looking according to 538:

  1. Indiana (Tomorrow!) – Clinton predicted to win by 7 points.
  2. California (June 7) – Clinton predicted to win by almost 10 points.
  3. New Jersey (June 7) – Clinton predicted to win by almost 10 points.

None of the other contests Sanders mentions have enough delegates to matter. (But but but…GUAM!!!)

Somewhat apologetically yesterday, Milo Beckman at FiveThirtyEight gently punctured #TheBernout’s hippified delusions. Unfortunately for the League of Extraordinarily Dense Brogressives, he ain’t going to come back.

…The reason for this is pretty simple: Proportional allocation of delegates makes comebacks really, really hard. You can’t just notch wins in a string of states, as Sanders did in late March and early April. You have to start consistently trouncing your opponent by large margins in every contest. You need, well, a political revolution.

But what about Obama? Sanders supporters have compared their candidate’s current deficit to Obama’s in 2008, but at this point in that election Obama was actually winning by 143 pledged delegates — enough that Clinton, despite still holding a lead in superdelegates, was receiving pressure to drop out of the race. In fact, Obama was at no point in 2008 actually behind Clinton in pledged delegates. It’s just that the media usually included superdelegates in their counts in 2008, and the DNC has instructed them not to this time around. That’s because we’ve learned our lesson: Superdelegates can change their mind. Unfortunately for Sanders, pledged delegates can’t.

If Obama isn’t a good comparison for Sanders, who is? There’s no good answer to this question because most candidates in Sanders’s position dropped out long before this point in the race. [bolding mine]

Our Girl, as always, is putting the Party’s needs before her own…something #TheBernout is constitutionally incapable of doing, narcissistic, lying sociopath that he is. Despite the intense frustration she must be feeling towards this pathetic poseur, she graciously proclaimed her willingness to work with him on the platform she’s believed in and upheld her whole life. Because you know, she really needs his help with that! As a lifelong Socialist, Bernie is such an expert on the Democratic Party platform, and he’s brought so much energy to the Party…unlike her!

What I can’t help wondering is, will #TheBernout take the olive branch Hillary has offered? Or will he go from Bern-ing out to Flam-ing Out at the Convention?

What do you think?

This is an open thread.

 

 

 

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76 Responses to "Activist Monday: Can Hillary Save Bernie from Himself?"

He’s answered that already, hasn’t he? Wasn’t it a few hours after she graciously — and without any actual requirement to work with the blowhard — invited his input that he made the speech about a contested convention?

I honestly don’t think he’s stupid enough to believe his own patter, even if some of his bros are. I think he’s trying to keep the contributions flowing. The bills are coming in for all those useless rallies and chartered jets to stalk the Pope, and they don’t pay for themselves.

I don’t think the words “contested convention” mean what Bernie thinks they mean. I’m fairly certain his name will be placed in the nomination and there will be an actual roll call vote. Consider yourself lucky Bern, that’s more than was afforded Hillary in ’08.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/05/02/bernies-bad-end/?_r=0

@2 – That’s exactly my point! He won’t have enough pledged delegates to contest…but he doesn’t appear to get that. :-p

Let’s see:

1) Bernie fails to release tax returns and Jane insists he will if Hillary releases WS transcripts. Sorry, it doesn’t work that way.

2) So far, we know that FEC has questioned the first three months of this year about hinky, unaccountable donations. (26 million) He failed to meet the response deadline. (for all three)

3) There is another FEC form to file to run for federal office (president or senate) that is due May 15. This doesn’t ask for tax returns, but asks for value of assets and net worth. He has filed for a 45 day extension because he’s “busy campaigning.” That would make the deadline after almost all of the remaining primaries.

These are all the financial requirements to run and he has screwed up (or wrangled his way around) all three. This is the man who wants to take on Wall Street and break up banks. Sounds like he needs to get his own house in order to me.

Did y’all see Cruz’ run in with some Trump supporters earlier? Trump supporters yell ‘you would carpet bomb women and children in the middle east!’ Cruz comes back with ‘well, Trump wants to hunt down and kill families of suspected terrorists. That’s killing women and children, too!’

My, my. What a dilemma. However will they choose?

Great post and points MB. BerningBum is acting out his inner Trumpenstein. As Nate Cohn, of the NYT, notes via Twitter and I can’t embed such things:

Hillary has already won enough states to win a majority of Super Delegates under Bernie rules, even if she loses all remaining contests.

This is from an article on MSNBC:

But Sanders’ supporters should be cautious about embracing this line too enthusiastically: if every superdelegate voted in line with their state’s primary or caucus, Clinton would still enjoy a comfortable lead. Indeed, as the New York Times’ Nate Cohn noted, under the standards Sanders presented yesterday, Clinton would have locked up a majority of all available pledged delegates last week.

@1 & 4, agree that this is about raking in as much $ as possible. I remember it took Hillary some time to pay off her campaign debt, but it looks like Bernie may be in some trouble. I think he was flooded with cash in the beginning by right wing super pacs and they stopped when the writing was on the wall. One thing that makes me really believe this is that the Sanders troll comment levels at all of the big lib sites (except Salon I guess–haven’t been there in some time) has greatly decreased. He keeps outspending her and losing. I think he is truly incompetent. His rantings sound more disjointed as the weeks roll on. Can’t wait for him to be over.

Wonderful post MB, as always!

@7: Well he better not expect any help from Hillary or her supporters for paying off his chartered 767 to Rome and back and other silliness. Let the bros help with that.

Madamab — what a good post. I love the photo.

I have a hard time believing Sanders will accept Hillary’s olive branch. After last Tuesday, the focus clearly shifted to Hillary vs. Trump. So Sanders, like a child who is being ignored and doesn’t know how to get attention in a positive way, threw yet another tantrum. I don’t know if anyone can talk him down from his “fantasy limb” other than perhaps the cold reality of an empty coffer.

@4, GaGal and @7, Socalannie — excellent points.

@9, yes, that describes Sanders actions perfectly.

Okay, just saw a piece on the math. If the superdelegates were awarded just the way BerningBum whines about — just the way he wants it done — he would net an additional 95 superdelegates. Total.

Hillary would still have 252 more superdelegates than he has and would lead him overall by over 600 delegates.

Sober up and do the math Bernie.

This is so funny! Grandpa Munsters descendant Creepy Cruz got tagged as “an immigrant” by none other than his own wife!
http://www.aol.com/article/2016/05/02/cruz-campaign-corrects-heidi-after-she-calls-ted-an-immigrant/21368707/

Did you see Carly falls off the stage after introducing the Cruzer and he just keeps on tawkin’.

So with a Cruz/Fiorina ticket we get an immigrant whose against immigration and a woman who is anti-woman.

Technically, it’s his father whose the immigrant since his mother was an American citizen (as far as we know), but he did have to renounce his Canadian citizenship a couple of years ago. Well, he didn’t have to – he just did to run for President.

@13 OMG! At least Heidi looked concerned.

Yeah, I wonder why Bernie never mentions caucuses…

Expanding voter participation is indeed a noble goal. But if Sanders really wants the Democratic Party’s presidential primaries to be more representative of the public, he should forget the closed primary and go after a much better target: the caucus.

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/2/11535648/bernie-sanders-closed-primaries-caucuses

The Pentagon calls out Trey Gowdy and ilk on wasting time and money on speculation.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/pentagon-pushes-back-against-benghazi-panels-demands?cid=sm_fb_maddow

Wow, Carly disappeared completely. It was like a magic trick! If only she would actually go away..but no, wingnut welfare keeps her failing upward.

Madamab, wingnut welfare siphoned through Ted’s SuperPac to Carly’s SuperPac to the tune of $500,000 a while ago (long before she dropped out). Makes it harder to trace that way.

I love the part where he almost bumped into his iPad on his return from the Bahamas and his iPad went to Memphis and Miami.

By coincidence, Mr. Bonnie nearly bumped into his iPad on a short layover from the Bahamas. As he waited at Concourse C at the Fort Lauderdale airport for a flight back to his home in San Francisco, he saw on Find My iPhone that his iPad was on an airplane approaching Concourse C.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/02/technology/an-ipad-misplaced-at-the-airport-takes-its-own-vacation.html

@19, maybe she used some of the $500K for gymnastic lessons on sticking the landing.

Hey, I have to give Carly her due on that. She recovered and ran back up the stairs to the stage – right before Heidi ran down the steps. That’s probably better than I could do.

From Newsweek:

An Italian surgeon is planning on attempting the first human head transplant. It is set to cost $20 million, and he already has a volunteer.

And it is only 740,740 contributions of $27 each.

@23 Nope. I got out my cal-ku-lator and whoever that human is, that’s $20 bucks shy. No transplant for them!

@25, LOL, I should have rounded up, but I liked the symmetry of 740,740.

@24, from the BNR article:

Something has gone wrong in the Sanders camp and some serious soul searching is in order.

My guess: An extremely weak stream makes it impossible for Bernie to go p*ss up a rope, ergo, the consternation.

It’s really so simple. Let the primaries play out. Hell, let Bernie rag on WS and Big Banks all he wants. But trying to tie it to Hillary and call her corrupt is wrong. I’ve also got other news for him. When he arrives at the convention, the establishment of the Democratic party will be there in force. Good luck with that.

@28 “I’ve also got other news for him. When he arrives at the convention, the establishment of the Democratic party will be there in force. Good luck with that.”

Yeah! Love it!

Never thought I’d say this again, but…Rachel is 100% dead-on. It helps that she completely backs up all my points. 😀

This is interesting about the down-ticket GOP races…it looks like the Tea Party whackos like Ted Cruz are getting kicked to the curb. Good news for Hillary and the Republican Party in general. Those people are completely insane and have no idea what it means to govern or work together.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/indiana-primary-what-to-watch/index.html

Trump and Sanders may have made 2016 the ultimate year of the outsider
.
But the Republican establishment is getting its revenge down-ballot — and a hot Indiana Senate primary between two up-and-coming congressmen could provide the latest evidence.

Rep. Todd Young is expected to defeat Rep. Marlin Stutzman in the race to fill the seat occupied by retiring Sen. Dan Coats.

That’s significant for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. His super PAC, as well as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have pumped money into the Indiana race in a bid to defeat Stutzman — who McConnell fears is a second coming of Cruz, and another threat to his authority.

Don’t get me wrong: Republicans are still *ssh0les, but Hillary was able to work with them in the Senate when she represented New York, and get some co-sponsored legislation passed. Since 2010, they have been nothing but obstructionists. I hope this tide is turning a bit.

Of course being Politico, this is very slanted, but it’s given the BernieBros something to yell and scream about concerning “money laundering” by the Victory Fund.

The polls close soon. I have no idea what’s going to happen. Hillary has polls that look good for her, but it’s an open primary so Bernie may win. I saw a woman interviewed earlier who said she’d just voted for Bernie because he was running against the establishment, but she would be glad to vote for “any Democrat” in November.

I haven’t seen any polls that favor Bernie on 538. I think pundits must be thinking it will be close because of demographics. Hillary is still 91% favored to win based on 538’s numbers.

Wait! CNN already has results…5% of the vote is in, and Our Girl is ahead, 57% to 42%!! Holy smokes. I wonder where those are coming from?!

SHE’S WINNING INDIANA!!! 57.4% !!!!

OMG, 13 minutes. I have to pick up my mamacita at the airport in about 30 minutes, so I’m hoping to get some good news to her.

Hey SM! I can’t believe it. That’s a Yuge lead!!! It’s narrowed to 55 to 44, but she’s ahead by 6000 votes.

I have to go pick up my husband now. Fingers and toes crossed!!!

Madama B, I’m a human pretzel right now! :)!

Too early to call!

Only 9% in and Hillary only 4 ahead now. Eeek!

Good grief, they’re already calling the Indy Repub primary for Trump!

Fredster, they did at 7 pm straight up.

Shit! 50/49 with 15% in.

Somebody let me know when Bernie stops jabbering. I turned it off.

Bernie just jumped ahead. If he would shut up, John King might tell us where the votes are coming in.

And by ahead, I mean .2%

Now he’s 2600 votes ahead.

She’ll get half the delegates even if he wins. Freaking Bernie.

He’s now over 12,000 votes ahead, but 60% of the vote is still out.

OusTed!! Cruz drops out!!!

It seems odd that 50% of the vote is in and Bernie is ahead by 5 points but they still haven’t called it for him. Something’s going on. Must be a big chunk of votes still out in areas that are leaning Hillary. I remember Gary, IN took forever in 2008.

@52 I was NOT expecting that!! Bye Ted. No hard feelings but I hope you lose your Senate seat too! 👿

Yes!! I hope he’s OusTed from Congress too!

ExiTed. Not gonna be nominaTed. Completely deflaTed.

A demagogue and his demise. Cruz to lose. A beautiful sight. He got to take his experience of shutting down the government and put it to good use — shutting down his campaign.

Now, let’s watch how quickly the hypocrites climb aboard the Trump train. We will never see a more imperial nominee in our lifetimes — grovel Republicans — all hail the Party of Trump — PoT.

Cruz’s campaign is now compleTed. He has abdicaTed.

MSNBC has called it for Bernie. Not CNN. Haven’t seen John King at all in the last hour unless I missed him.

CNN now called it for B. I still want to see the breakdown for what’s still out. Except Trump is rattling on.

Hey Shinners, just picked up mamacita at the airport, won’t believe until Gary votes are in, that a heavy urban Chicago suburb.

And Hillz’ delegate difference is still the same, right? he may be up probably three to four delegates more than what he had before, at most

Yes SM77, this won’t help Bernie at all. He would have to get 65% of the vote.

Hillary was smart with Indiana. Without spending any money she is going to be down two delegates. If she had spent money, fought it out and not walked away with a big win, the narrative would have been ominous for her among the talking dodos. She was smart. Let the story be Trump and Cruz — Bernie “berned” a million bucks — good on him and his two delegates.

HAHA! Anderson Cooper, “I mean this was a big win for Bernie Sand…” Axlerod “Nu..aaahh”. The arithmetic doesn’t change. You tried, Anderson!

Yeah, sorry #TheBernout. Hillary is 900 delegates ahead and has 92% of the delegates she needs to win the nomination. Read it and weep, you idiot.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-all-but-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination/ar-BBsC6Yh

Gagal said: Fredster, they did at 7 pm straight up.

Yeah I know, but sometimes I’m doing other things before I can get here to type a comment.

Fredster, I was just making note of the fact that every time Donald wins, they announce it one second after the polls close. Not so with Hillary. She won NY by 16, but it was too early to call (for like 45 minutes) based on the “exit polls”. They knew they would have to admit their horserace was over after NY.

GAgal, I understand. In fact I had the teevee on in the background and they led off with it right at the start of the news broadcast. I had other things I was doing on the laptop so i couldn’t get over here to make a comment.

And what I started ended up taking most of the evening. Grrrr…

Cruz’s campaign was aborTED

And there it is… just like I said. From a statement from Bernie tonight:

To help voters make the best-informed choice possible, I hope that Secretary Clinton will agree to a date and place for a debate in California.”

Sweet Sue, PERFECT!!

My nephew, who is in the first grade, had an assignment to tell the class a joke. So I looked up some kid jokes. This one came to mind with Bernie’s delegate gain tonight.

Q: What does a snail say when it’s riding on the back of a turtle?
A: Wheeeeee!!!

@69, Sue wins!

The Dem superpacs need to step up their ads against Bernie. Start showing America the Bernie that the repubs would show them if he were the candidate. So far, Hillary hasn’t laid a finger on him, and that’s very classy of her, but with Cruz out, the rethugs will start registering as Dems in Calif to vote for Bernie. She would still beat him, but it would look awful if Bern wins California.

Yes! Sweet Sue wins!

By no means should Bernie get even one second of free air time by riding on Hillary’s coattails. The time for tolerating this guy’s shenanigans is over.

I agree 1000% Annie. Hillary should not be complacent about California. She needs to go full bore, and let Debbie W-S do some concern attacking. You know, “I am really concerned that Americans don’t understand how vulnerable Bernie would be in November. Is it common knowledge that he honeymooned in Moscow?” Etc.

DWS should also visit Bernie and tell him that a), he won’t be contesting the convention, and b), if he wants any influence over the Party platform, he needs to drop out NOW. This would be completely within her rights as chair of the DNC.

I like everything madamab said @75.

SweetSue — good one! Samantha Bee tweeted this: “Shouldn’t [Cruz] have been forced to carry his unviable campaign to term?

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