The Widdershins

NH WTF, coda…

Posted on: February 11, 2016

We need some happy-making news after Tuesday night – especially given the insufficient information being peddled by the media.  Contrary to all reports, there is no cause for a major-go-to-pieces.  Allow me to explain.Marching Penguins

Last week I was reading something or other and there was a discussion of the changes in the New Hampshire electorate.  There has been an influx of about 78,000 tax-loathing Bay Staters into New Hampshire.  Combine that with 37,500 migrants from other New England states and you have a dramatically changed electorate from 2008 when Hillary won the state.  Strike One:  New voters.

That particular tidbit led me to investigate just who voted and how they voted.  Finding this information wasn’t easy since overturning these rocks extinguish the narrative of unstoppable “Bernie-mentum”.

When you do the CSI on the vote in New Hampshire, it is clear what happened.  Bernie and Hillary essentially split the traditional Democratic votes.  Bernie’s winning margin was with Independents who are allowed to pick-a-party the day of the election.  Bernie won Independents 72% to 27% for Hillary.

So what Prolix, a vote is a vote isn’t it?  Yes, but only in New Hampshire’s contrarian voting scheme.  It doesn’t work that way in traditional Democratic primaries.  All told, if not for these Independents, Hillary would have most likely won New Hampshire.  Strike Two:  Hillary would have won.

Hillary dancingAs Nate Silver has explained, this portion of Bernie’s support is very similar to the Ron Paul supporter of 2008.  These voters slipped their leash when Rand Paul took a powder and withdrew from this year’s primary.  These homeless voters subsequently found their way into Bernie’s kennel.  Simply put:

Exit polls suggest that this group of formerly Ron Paul voters helped push Sanders to his victory in New Hampshire, and without them, he would have been in a dead heat or possibly even lost to Clinton.

This finding was only reported by one other source, ABC News:

About 4 in 10 voters in both the Democratic and Republican primaries said they identify as Independents, and their support made a big difference on the Democratic side. Seven in 10 Independents supported Sanders, while Democrats were evenly split between the two candidates.

There is one other issue integral to an understanding of what has happened in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Wake up the cat, this is important.

Bernie’s entire premise in running – the keystone of his campaign – is to foment a revolution.  Without a revolution, admits Bernie, nothing he talks about has a hairbreadth’s chance of success.

Bernie continually talks about, continually harangues about, voter turnout as a leading indicator of the impending revolution.  He incessantly talks about record-breaking voter turnout.  Trouble is, it’s the Republicans who are having record-breaking turnout.  Democratic turnout is down from 2008.

To stress the understanding of this fact, I repeat, Democratic turnout is down from 2008.  Turnout in Iowa was down by about 60,000 from 2008 (236,000 vs. 171,000) and turnout in New Hampshire was down by about 40,000 (288,000 vs. 251,000).Penguins Running and Jumping

This is very important.  If Bernie, in the second and third most liberal states, with an overwhelmingly white and young electorate, can’t excite voters to the point of revolutionary frenzy, then where is he going to do it?  Put another way:

The argument is that Sanders’ unique appeal can help him in small, unrepresentative states, but… being iconoclastic is good for art and fashion, but perhaps not so great for winning the popularity contests known as elections.

The heavy reliance on young voters and independents could suggest that the Sanders campaign is not doing a good job convincing loyal Democrats, the kind of people who have been steadily donating and voting for many election cycles. These are the folks that get demonized as “establishment” and might not be thrilled to vote for someone who, as Clinton warned, has a small army of supporters who suggest that everyone who doesn’t get on board is just a corrupt stooge or just pretending to be liberal.

Strike Three:  Bernie will lose — not just badly, but by antediluvian standards.

To sum it up, it is always wrong, everywhere, and for anyone to spread stories based upon insufficient information.  There are no exceptions for reporters or political candidates.  This is particularly true if they are colluding in telling only half the story — the self-serving part.  So, NH WTF?


Have a great Thursday and take the discussion in any direction the winds of your interest might blow.


73 Responses to "NH WTF, coda…"

South Carolina will tell the tale. I am now reading things like “AA vote is swinging toward Bernie!” and some dude rating that women are sexist for voting for Hillary and yet another screeching that she denounce Madeline and Gloria as sexist harpies. Duh, what does that make males who will not vote for a woman? Sexist harps?

Don’t know what to make of this. Harry Belafonte endorsed Bernie:

Prolix does it again! Thanks for a very positive post!

@1, LOL sexist harps!
@2, I think Belafonte has always been very radical, and anyway, I don’t think he has any political clout. John Lewis does though:

@2: So did Ben Jealous (is there something with that name?). (Endorse Sanders that is) He was on Maddow last night. He said Hillary stated in one of the debates that she’s still for the death penalty. What he didn’t say was that Hillary said was the death penalty for certain federal crimes, such as terrorism. She specifically mentioned Tim McVeigh and the Boston bombing as examples. Of course Maddow just left his statement there, as it was, not challenging it. But I believe that Ben sold out some time back when he abruptly stepped down from the NAACP. Apparently, some folks didn’t think he should have been in charge of the NAACP to begin with.

Prlolix – how to say this – I’ve found that ABC news appears to be the least biased of the 3 networks, although the way they handled that Repub debate was terrible.

Yeah um, AAs have zero reason to vote for Bernie. He has done nothing for them. Ever. And the CBC endorsement is hugely important. Even CNN is saying that, and showed the powerful clip.from John Lewis.

There is zero chance Bernie will win South Carolina. This is a Democratic primary in a state that is mostly AA. Demographically impossible for him. He just doesn’t appeal to that many people. If the first primaries were in the biggest states, this would be the most obvious thing in the world. It’s only the oddities of Iowa and NH voting populations that have given the illusion of Bernie’s momentum.

On CCN this morning: Kasim Reed, the mayor of Atlanta just flat out said “We will NOT tolerate any candidate who has not been a Democrat, worked with Democrats, helped other Democrats over the years.” Then he repeated that a couple more times. The pundit was kinda shocked.

The Congressional Black Caucus PAC also said Democrat, Democrat, Democrat over and over. They were pushing this hard and taking no sh!t from any pundit. These AA leaders are kicking media ass.

The next few segments were the media pushing about Bill Clinton’s 1994 crime bill. It was the same answer every time. ‘Bernie Sanders himself (and a lot of Democrats) voted for that bill, so I don’t know why he would want to bring that up.’ When that didn’t work, they moved on to the young vs. old gap in the AA community – trying to stir that up.

Speaking of the 1994 crime bill

Prolix, love the pengies! 🙂

That’s great that the Southerners are pointing out that Bernie doesn’t help Dems.

I know I said I was done with Politico, but Trixta @ Upps posted this great article about Bernie’s wife, and how she did a terrible job of running a small private college in VT. It shows what could happen nationwide if Bernie got his way about colleges. This couple has grandiose ideas, but no idea of how to pay for them.

WTH? Iranian official says Republicans tried to delay the prisoner swap until the eve of the presidential election. We’re gonna need some names, dude!

@9, they are despicable. It’s like they’re (Bernie’s campaign & supporters) republicans or something. Actually, I think a lot of his “supporters” are republicans. And the campaign is just plain shameless.

Oh, did you guys hear the Oregon thing is over. Someone @ fluffpo called them “Ranch Stupidians”!!!

@13: “We got ya surrounded Blackie! C’mon out with your hands up!”, said the FBI. 😆

@1, I’m sick of the criticism of Sec. Albright and Ms. Steinem. These punk a$$ Bernie babies who just took the training wheels off their keyboards criticizing two people who have contributed lifetimes to making the world a better place just makes me quite unwell. Ms. Steinem was on a comedy show. She was there as herself not as a spokesperson for Hillary. She made a joke. She apologized. It is nothing more than a media gimmick to drum up controversy.

If a measurable number of Ron/Rand Paul supporters have morphed into Bernbros, a lot of the behavior we’re seeing on that side makes sense. That’s just how they’ve always been. And the weak grasp of evidence and logic that they had as people who thought the government should get out of everything is just as weak once they decide the government should get into everything.

@3, Bernie and Belafonte might have more in common than meets the eye. From Belafonte’s official Wiki page.

Belafonte honored Ethel and Julius Rosenberg and praised Fidel Castro. Belafonte is additionally known for his visit to Cuba which helped ensure hip-hop’s place in Cuban society. According to Geoffrey Baker’s article “Hip hop, Revolucion! Nationalizing Rap in Cuba”, in 1999 Belafonte met with representatives of the rap community immediately before meeting with Fidel Castro.

That tweet is too big, I’m taking it out.

@4, Bernie can have Ben Jealous and Nina Turner. Hillary, I’m sure, is quite content with John Lewis. This from 5 hours ago:

Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), the progressive icon who led the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) during the civil rights movement, on Thursday dismissed Sen. Bernie Sanders’ participation in that movement.

When a reporter asked Lewis to comment on Sanders’ involvement in the movement—Sanders as a college student at the University of Chicago was active in civil rights work—the congressman brusquely interrupted him. “Well, to be very frank, I’m going to cut you off, but I never saw him, I never met him,” Lewis said. “I’m a chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee for three years, from 1963 to 1966. I was involved in the sit-ins, the freedom rides, the March on Washington, the march from Selma to Montgomery, and directed their voter education project for six years. But I met Hillary Clinton. I met President Clinton.”

I will be on a plane during tonight’s debate. I hope we are blogging it? 😊

@8, I love the little penguins who are commuting in the first gif. Those are Massachusetts penguins going home to New Hampshire.

@16, excellent point Quixote!

@21: So who are the happy, hoppy pengies in the other gif?

@12, GAgal, I would first suspect Tom Cotton — dangerous, dangerous Ted Cruz type in drag. He will run for President against Hillary in 2020. The other person I would suspect is the Jeff Sessions, KKK-AL.

@23, they are the pre-revolutionary Bernie-guins. They are rioting penguins getting ready to loot the pet food store or the fish market.

@13, The Ranch Stupidians is great! LOL

Hmm… Hillary has a much higher (than Bernie) level of support from young people, 18-29, if they are the parents of a daughter/daughters.

Widdershins, I wrote a comment today over at Skydancing about my decision to support Sanders. You can read it there if you want to. I don’t have the energy to rewrite it. But I will repeat one part that I wrote: I love and respect you all and don’t want to argue with any of you over candidates so I won’t be posting here anymore. If Hillary is the nominee ( and the odds are she will be ) then I will certainly vote for her in the general election. I’m not going to over to Sanders blogs or anything like that. I don’t even know any Sanders blogs.

I felt I needed to tell you rather than just disappear since we have been together for so long. I’ll miss you.

Best wishes to you Beata.

Hey MadamaB, count me in! I’m healing from a cold, but had chicken soup and feeling better. Happy and safe travels to you!
WIll be here with my Shinners.

THANK YOU DEMOCRATS, CBC and other AA congress-peoples) for standing up for one of our own. How can Bernie waltz in and take over OUR primary for OUR candidate when he never was one to begin…until it was convenient for him become one of us?!?!?!?? Nope, sorry. Don’t buy it for one bit.

It’s all good Beata, hopefully we’ll see you again after the primaries are over?

#19-Prolix: Well I am very glad for that! She always had the CBC’s back, either through endorsements, campaign appearances, fund-raising, pushing legislation that helps their constituents, publicly and privately stand with them on issues…on and on.

Take care Beata! You said you weren’t feeling good the other night. Hope you’re doing better.

@33: Yes, after the primaries.

Another reason AA leaders take umbrage with Obama is his criticism of Obama over the years.

Correct my comment… take umbrage with SANDERS not Obama..Gah!

Here’s John Lewis’ speech, and there’s the BOOM, POW.

LOL Fredster! Like two peas in a crazy pod.

SM, so glad you’re here. What are your thoughts on the Ben Jealous, Bellafonte, Nina Turner endorsements of Sanders? Just curious.




Debate post up. Join us upstairs.

#42 – Hi Fredster! I’m a little surprised with Ben Jealous’ endorsement, but whatever. He’ll have high-profile endorsers, but not as powerful as having the CBC behind you. John Lewis snatched any wind that the Belafonte and Jealous endorsement had given him.

Hey thanks for that SM.

And fwiw, they seem to be holding an adult discussion about the debate over on CNN.

Fredster, the kids at CNN finally recognize the adult in the room. They will get their talking points together overnight and proceed to tell us why Hillary is evil…. first thing in the morning.

@48: (sigh) You are probably totally correct. 😦

Clinton is brilliant. Just plain genius-level brilliant. Here’s The Guardian post-debate write-up, her answer to the bleating about Millenial Women! Don’t Like You!

Throughout the debate, on practically every topic, Clinton’s cool demeanor played well. Even on the one topic that should have gotten under her skin – why more New Hampshire women, particularly young women, didn’t vote for her – she resisted the temptation to be or even sound critical.

“I have spent my entire adult life making sure that women are empowered to make their own choices even if that choice is not to vote for me” she said, adding that she hoped that they’d vote their consciences in the primary and learn more about her before the general election.

As SM would say, BOOM POW.

On a quick lunch break.

Quixote, wassup!! I read the guardian article and opinion piece, accurate and boom-worthy 😄

Not sure if this was posted, but BernieBros need to calm the eff down:

Let’s continue on this thread until tomorrow. We’ll need a palate cleansing Lazy Weekend by then.
@52: OMG, John Lewis, of all people. Those of us who actually lived through that era know what a true hero and icon John Lewis actually is.

@53, anyone who dares insult John Lewis is clueless about history. He was almost killed on the Pettus Bridge — his skull was fractured. There is no one in Congress who has walked his walk. These little Bernie babies criticizing him should disqualify Bernie from any interview until he apologizes. There needs to be consequences.

I had copied a tweet in last night’s thread but it was just too “uge”. Nevertheless, it showed people who were calling John Lewis a sellout, an Uncle Tom and other despicable things. And Prolix is right, Sanders needs to tell his “bros” to STFU.

If they do not, vengeance will be swift and sure in the Georgia primary.

@57: Oh I bet so!

@60: And a full gamut of comments as well,

Fredster, is it true that Bernie has released pix of him in the civil rights movement that aren’t really him? I saw that on twitter and someplace else.

@annie: I think what happened was there was supposedly a pic of him that Maddow displayed when she had that Town Hall and bernie said yep, that was me. It appears that may not be true.

It figures. Poor Madeleine. I read her op-ed. I thought it was nicely done, although I’m sure she’s getting ripped apart over it.

The latest on the Bundy bunch: Seven more indicted and arrested with 2 more in the works. Cliven Bundy arrested at the airport, now asks for public defender. He’s got some serious charges against him.

Just wanted to pass along that I got an email from our Prolix and he is a most unhappy camper right now. He broke a back tooth and put off going to the dentist (been there done that!). Anyway it started bothering him…real bad…so he saw the dentist but has to go to an oral surgeon and can’t get in there until Monday.

So send him some kind thoughts and wish him well until he gets in to the oral surgeon. He has some meds but if he’s like me they really don’t help a great deal.

@68: If Bundy has any assets, that could be a problem. FL charges on a sliding scale that is none too generous.
@69: Those can be wicked, and lead one to dream of having each and every tooth extracted.

@70: Sometimes it makes you almost want to grab the pliers in the toolbox.

Poor Prolix! Gosh, that’s awful. Sending you good thoughts and get well vibes Prolix!

Sending soothing thoughts to Prolix; the only consolation is it will be such a relief when it’s over.

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