The Widdershins

Activist Monday: Shivering with antici-…pation

Posted on: January 25, 2016

Are we all excited for Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond? (Click here for the full schedule.) I know I am. Here’s how things are looking right now:

National GOP – It’s all Trump right now…but I still maintain he will not be the nominee. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the RNC cannot allow themselves to continue to be perceived as being the party of the pissed-off, xenophobic, sexist white male, even though they clearly are exactly that. They want to win another Presidential election sometime in the next 40 years, and in order to do so, they cannot embrace the sociopathic Trump/Cruz base any more. They will run another candidate if they can’t get rid of Trump any other way, and force him to run on a third-party ticket. They’ll lose the election, but live to fight another day, finally throwing the racists and the religiously insane out for good.

The same strategy would be put into place if Ted Cruz wins the primaries. Forgive me for being brutally honest, but, The Evil One has nothing at all to recommend him as a national candidate. Think of him as a younger, less mechanical Dick Cheney. Cruz lacks the credibility to challenge Hillary’s credentials and experience, and is far too right-wing to beat her on policy grounds. As an alternative to Trump, the situation doesn’t get any better: He doesn’t have Trump’s dubious star power, his billions of PAC-free dollars, or his ability to play the media like a fiddle. There’s just no way the RNC is that dumb.

It’s the best possible outcome for a national Party that has imploded  so spectacularly, and frankly, it’s the best thing for our country. Let the crazoids be relegated to the fringes where they belong. I wish President Hillary could deport them all the way they want to deport all the Mexicans, or Canadians, or anchor babies, or whatevah the f*ck they’re talking about. Honestly, I can’t even follow the thread of their arguments. I start feeling like that robot on Star Trek whose circuits are blown out by a series of logical impossibilities.

It will be Rubio. Mark my words, Widdershins. He’s just Obama-like enough to seem like he isn’t as right-wing as he is. He’s young and ethnic and male, unlike Hillary – and he’s not Bush, forever tainted by the shadow of a brother who is considered by a large number of Americans as the Worst President Ever. And speaking of Rubio…

Rubio vs. Clinton – Ooooh, look! Real Clear Politics has Rubio winning! You can see why this option would appear to be more favorable than Trump, who even RCP has losing to Hillary. Don’t panic, though – keep this in mind:

  1. No Likely Voters were polled – just Registered Voters (RV), and it’s a REALLY small sample size for a national poll.
  2. No information was posted about the party registration of the voters polled.

Yes, I am ignoring the Cruz poll. #1, it has the same issues as the Rubio poll; and #2, the results are both widely varied (beware of outliers!) and within the margin of error.

From the Democratic perspective, it continues to be “Bernie who?” in the reality-based community. Here’s my latest reason for stating this: The “invisible primary” (the Party elites’ endorsements received by each candidate). According to the site 538, Hillary is winning this by a margin of 456 points. Yup, that’s right – Hillary has 458 points, Bernie has 2, and Martin O’Malley has 1. But really! The candidates are NECK AND NECK!!!111!!!

In the book “The Party Decides” (2008), the most comprehensive study of the invisible primary, the political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller evaluated data on endorsements made in presidential nomination contests between 1980 and 2004 and found that “early endorsements in the invisible primary are the most important cause of candidate success in the state primaries and caucuses.”

These endorsements can serve several purposes. In some cases, they directly influence voters who trust the judgment of governors and members of Congress from their party. In other cases, endorsements serve as a signal to other party elites. “It tells others who is acceptable and who is unacceptable,” Cohen, an associate professor of political science at James Madison University, said in an e-mail to FiveThirtyEight. “This is the coordination process that we believe goes on during the invisible primary and by way of public endorsements that was formerly and more formally undertaken at the convention.”

From a primary and caucus standpoint, Bernie doesn’t have a lot going for him either. Hillary is 82% favored to win Iowa. Nevada looks good for her too, and South Carolina seems to be a lock. So going into Super Tuesday, Bernie will most likely have one state win versus Hillary’s 3. I could go on and on, but I think you get the point.

Soooo…you can see why I’m excited that the voting and caucusing (not the same thing) are going to start soon. It’s time for action, and not wishful thinking, Widdershins! I can’t wait till Hillary wins the nomination, and can start slicing and dicing the Republican nominee and Party on a full-time basis. They’ve had a free pass for much too long from Obama…it’s time to take them DOWN. And that, my friends, is worth looking forward to.

This is an open thread.

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23 Responses to "Activist Monday: Shivering with antici-…pation"

MB, great post, you hit two of my favorite things, Star Trek and Rocky Horror Picture Show. I’m a very simple man.

I agree on all counts but throw in this one unknown exponent: Of the GOPe, how many of them fear Trump’s long-term negative effect versus those who thirst for power and count on Trump’s corruptibility due to his philosophical rudderlessness? I don’t know the answer, but I do think ultimately that is the calculus at work.

Not a huge fan of star trek, but loves my Rocky Horror.
I have realy enjoyed the screaming headlines of “Bernie Soars in the Polls”, which should actually read “Bernie soars in 2 out of 20 polls, Clinton bashes him in the rest.”

The guy who made the planned parenthood videos has been indicted.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-grand-jury-planned-parenthood-20160125-story.html

@2, in the Loras Poll announced Friday of likely caucusteers, meaning those who have caucused in the last two or three caucuses, Hillary is ahead by 29% — twenty-nine percent! Did you hear about that one — no one did because it didn’t fit the narrative.

Granted, she was ahead in this same group in 2008, but not by this much and quite frankly, Bernie does not engender the same level of support that Obama did. The other piece of this is that Bernie’s support is basically in three urban counties — representing only about 12% of the population, therefore, capping his total overall advantage in the Bernbot universe.

I’ve noticed the media starting to hedge their bets on Iowa — gently, ever so gently, moving toward the reality of a Hillary victory.

@3, and Abbott, as Governor and in the face of a Republican D.A. indicting these creepsters, isn’t giving up his pandering based on the fraudulent, doctored videos.

Abbott’s office noted in a statement that Paxton and the Texas Health and Human Services Commission still are investigating the videos.

“Nothing about today’s announcement in Harris County impacts the state’s ongoing investigation,” Abbott said. “The State of Texas will continue to protect life, and I will continue to support legislation prohibiting the sale or transfer of fetal tissue.”

I’ve thought for quite a while than Rubio would win, for no other reason than process of elimination. This election has just been so over the top. Maybe it’s just the media, but I’m not sure I want this much drama in a presidential election.

Prolix – great point about Trump. He is, however, losing the endorsement primary to Bush and Rubio. The RNC cannot stand him. This could change, I suppose, but I think it’s very unlikely.

GAgal@3: To me this is the jawdropping part:

A Houston grand jury Houston, as in Texas. Just blows me away.

@8 I think it’s funny as hell he is being charged with trying to purchase human body organs! Oh, the irony is killing me.

Don’t forget that CNN’s townhall is tonight.

In case you missed it, here’s the full opening skit from SNL with Tina/Sarah.

I’m having a hard time watching Bernie probably because I’ve heard the same thing so many times. I will say one thing – a townhall is a good venue for him because he doesn’t come across as loud and angry.

@11: Honestly,, I’m flipping between channels.

Great post, MB! RCP has Rubio over Hillary? Ewww.

I didn’t find that Sarah parody very funny. If she really spoke in rhyme, maybe. And I’m so tired of.the sexism. She’s no crazier or dumber than Trump, Carson or any of the other male fringe right wingers, but you don’t see headlines calling THEM deranged. I wish the media would just tell the truth, that none of the Republicans are fit to hold the office of POTUS, and have done with it.

That is great news about the @$$ who made the Planned Parenthood videos. At last, justice for one of these clowns.

I thought the Sarah Palin SNL skit was hilarious. SNL is a comedy show, it’s not part of the news media like CNN or the NYT. It doesn’t have headlines, it has punch lines.

SNL has made fun of the GOP candidates many times. This skit is great, especially the “optics” of Dr. Ben Carson at 5:43.

@14: Sorry but I agree with Beata about the Palin skit. And as a (former) politician, celebrity and facebook author she opened herself up to being parodied. Have you felt the same way about the Hillary sketches that SNL has done? I took it for what it was, a comedy sketch. I could add that the guy playing Trump wasn’t very Trumpish. Needed a few “uge” comments in there.

The funniest thing about that Palin video was “Trump” saying ‘it’s like her mouth starts driving before her brain gets in the car’. That’s true for him too.

What’s with this move to hold an unsanctioned debate before the NH vote? I don’t care if they have another debate, but this seems to me to be Chuck Todd and Rachael Maddow just trying to stir up controversy with the DNC.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/sources-nbc-news-and-union-leader-to-annouce-unsanctioned-de#.lcl6V79rk

@17: Doubt it will happen. The article states that both the Sanders and Clinton campaigns said that if it’s not sanctioned by the DNC they won’t participate.

On a slightly different topic did you see that Trump said he wouldn’t participate in the Fox debate? The talking heads are having a field day with it.

@18 OMG! That article is completely different than when I first posted it! There was no mention what so ever about Hillary or Bernie or DWS comments. Everything except the first couple of paragraphs and the last one were added as an update five hours after the initial post. It completely changed the narrative of that piece. Scumbags.

What blows my mind about Trump not showing up for the debate is because it’s about Megan Kelly moderating. He must be scared of the wittle girl.

From the New Hampshire Union Leader:

“Two Democratic presidential candidates said they would like to take part in a debate next week hosted by the New Hampshire Union Leader, despite a threat from the national party to punish them if they take the stage. Sen. Hillary Clinton would be ‘happy to participate in a debate in New Hampshire if the other candidates agree, which would allow the DNC to sanction the debate,’ a spokesman said Tuesday. Gov. Martin O’Malley said he would participate in the debate, set for just five days before the first-in-the-nation primary. The holdout is Sen. Bernie Sanders, who said through a spokesman there should be three or four more debates, but he would not want to jeopardize his spot in other debates by taking part in an unsanctioned event.”

http://www.unionleader.com/Clinton-OMalley-express-support-for-pre-primary-debate

@20, running that through the Bernie translator:

I’m ahead in NH, therefore, I have no desire to debate and chip away at my Granite State lead.

@21: Excellent translation. 🙂

@20 Thank you Beata.

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