Activist Monday: Shivering with antici-…pation
Posted January 25, 2016on:
National GOP – It’s all Trump right now…but I still maintain he will not be the nominee. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the RNC cannot allow themselves to continue to be perceived as being the party of the pissed-off, xenophobic, sexist white male, even though they clearly are exactly that. They want to win another Presidential election sometime in the next 40 years, and in order to do so, they cannot embrace the sociopathic Trump/Cruz base any more. They will run another candidate if they can’t get rid of Trump any other way, and force him to run on a third-party ticket. They’ll lose the election, but live to fight another day, finally throwing the racists and the religiously insane out for good.
The same strategy would be put into place if Ted Cruz wins the primaries. Forgive me for being brutally honest, but, The Evil One has nothing at all to recommend him as a national candidate. Think of him as a younger, less mechanical Dick Cheney. Cruz lacks the credibility to challenge Hillary’s credentials and experience, and is far too right-wing to beat her on policy grounds. As an alternative to Trump, the situation doesn’t get any better: He doesn’t have Trump’s dubious star power, his billions of PAC-free dollars, or his ability to play the media like a fiddle. There’s just no way the RNC is that dumb.
It’s the best possible outcome for a national Party that has imploded so spectacularly, and frankly, it’s the best thing for our country. Let the crazoids be relegated to the fringes where they belong. I wish President Hillary could deport them all the way they want to deport all the Mexicans, or Canadians, or anchor babies, or whatevah the f*ck they’re talking about. Honestly, I can’t even follow the thread of their arguments. I start feeling like that robot on Star Trek whose circuits are blown out by a series of logical impossibilities.
It will be Rubio. Mark my words, Widdershins. He’s just Obama-like enough to seem like he isn’t as right-wing as he is. He’s young and ethnic and male, unlike Hillary – and he’s not Bush, forever tainted by the shadow of a brother who is considered by a large number of Americans as the Worst President Ever. And speaking of Rubio…
Rubio vs. Clinton – Ooooh, look! Real Clear Politics has Rubio winning! You can see why this option would appear to be more favorable than Trump, who even RCP has losing to Hillary. Don’t panic, though – keep this in mind:
- No Likely Voters were polled – just Registered Voters (RV), and it’s a REALLY small sample size for a national poll.
- No information was posted about the party registration of the voters polled.
Yes, I am ignoring the Cruz poll. #1, it has the same issues as the Rubio poll; and #2, the results are both widely varied (beware of outliers!) and within the margin of error.
From the Democratic perspective, it continues to be “Bernie who?” in the reality-based community. Here’s my latest reason for stating this: The “invisible primary” (the Party elites’ endorsements received by each candidate). According to the site 538, Hillary is winning this by a margin of 456 points. Yup, that’s right – Hillary has 458 points, Bernie has 2, and Martin O’Malley has 1. But really! The candidates are NECK AND NECK!!!111!!!
In the book “The Party Decides” (2008), the most comprehensive study of the invisible primary, the political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller evaluated data on endorsements made in presidential nomination contests between 1980 and 2004 and found that “early endorsements in the invisible primary are the most important cause of candidate success in the state primaries and caucuses.”
These endorsements can serve several purposes. In some cases, they directly influence voters who trust the judgment of governors and members of Congress from their party. In other cases, endorsements serve as a signal to other party elites. “It tells others who is acceptable and who is unacceptable,” Cohen, an associate professor of political science at James Madison University, said in an e-mail to FiveThirtyEight. “This is the coordination process that we believe goes on during the invisible primary and by way of public endorsements that was formerly and more formally undertaken at the convention.”
From a primary and caucus standpoint, Bernie doesn’t have a lot going for him either. Hillary is 82% favored to win Iowa. Nevada looks good for her too, and South Carolina seems to be a lock. So going into Super Tuesday, Bernie will most likely have one state win versus Hillary’s 3. I could go on and on, but I think you get the point.
Soooo…you can see why I’m excited that the voting and caucusing (not the same thing) are going to start soon. It’s time for action, and not wishful thinking, Widdershins! I can’t wait till Hillary wins the nomination, and can start slicing and dicing the Republican nominee and Party on a full-time basis. They’ve had a free pass for much too long from Obama…it’s time to take them DOWN. And that, my friends, is worth looking forward to.
This is an open thread.
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