The Widdershins

Hillary 2016: It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Posted on: August 31, 2015

Happy Monday, all. What with all the triumphalist rhetoric Fox News is spewing about how the Democrats are panicking and tanking, it can be very difficult to keep our heads on straight with regard to Hillary’s chances in 2016. OMG her poll numbers are slipping! OMG what if Biden runs?! OMG Jeb Bush is beating her!!! OMG Bernie’s going to win Iowa! These are all the memes I’m hearing.

I’d like us all to take a pause, though, and consider when the first primary vote will be cast.

Feb 1, 2016.

That’s right, folks – people are hyperventilating and freaking out over a contest that is still 6 months away from starting. I submit that there’s absolutely no reason to worry. Why? Because the Democratic Party is backing Hillary.

Hillary Clinton delivered a show of force on Friday meant to make one thing abundantly clear to Democratic leaders, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden: She is the boss.

Coming off two weeks of breathless speculation about the vice president’s ambitions, Clinton now looks like she’s nearly locked up the support of party elites, something she critically failed to accomplish in 2008.

(snip)

In a leak coinciding neatly with Clinton’s appearance in Minneapolis, Brooklyn told Bloomberg it has already secured commitments from more than 60 percent of the party’s superdelegates — those officials and leaders whose support is not tied to primary or caucus tallies. The campaign also says it is briefing the unpledged delegates to firm up support.

It’s not a field-clearing advantage; superdelegates can change allegiances and Clinton was ahead in the delegate count early in the 2008 race too. But it’s significant if it holds.

I know we’re all shocked, shocked that the Democratic Party still works like this. (insert eyeroll) Didn’t we think Barack Obama was going to Change(TM) all that? Wait, that’s right…he was the one who benefited from it in 2008. Without the superdelegates, rigging the vote count and overweighting caucuses, he would never have been the candidate in the first place. Cheating was his MO. It’s the Chicago Way, after all.

As much as I would have loved the DNC to somehow automagically become more fair and less elitist, I didn’t expect it to do so. The Party bigwigs were rewarded for their skulduggery in 2008 with 8 years of a President who raised hundreds of millions of dollars to fill their coffers.  They’re going to want to keep the flow going, and if they look at the field of potential non-Clinton candidates, it’s not exactly impressive. For example, Biden. Here’s my take on ol’ Joe: He won’t run, because to the DNC, what is his advantage over Hillary? The Democratic Party already has an experienced white candidate who is seen as centrist enough to win the general election. Biden would be as superfluous as a hairpiece on Trump’s empty noggin.

There are some choice quotes from DNC delegates about Biden in the article, too:

And it’s not just a question of electoral math for some Democrats, who bristle at the idea that the vice president could reshape the race the second he chose to get in.

“[Biden] doesn’t reach out to me for seven f—ing years and then he wants me to help him out? I don’t think so,” said Florida committeeman and Clinton backer Jon M. Ausman, lamenting the vice president’s lack of party activity compared to Bill Clinton, who invited him to the Lincoln Bedroom as president. “I don’t really give a shit. I don’t care if he gets into the race or not.”

That’s not to mention that the second Joe started campaigning, his numbers would tank due to his chronic foot-in-mouth disease.

As for Sanders and O’Malley, Sanders is a Socialist, not a Democrat, no matter how he dresses it up. Why would Democratic superdelegates, or even delegates, vote for him? What has he ever done for the Democratic Party? And O’Malley? Being the former Mayor of Baltimore these days is hardly a feather in anyone’s cap.

But shouldn’t we worry about Hillary’s recent slide in the polls? Not according to what I’ve been reading. Seasoned political operatives from both parties agree: this was not only to be expected, but it will happen to the eventual Republican nominee as well. The Republicans are taking hits because of their huge slate of wingnutty candidates, but the situation is hurting Hillary too.

“What Hillary Clinton needs in the worst way is somebody to run against,” the Republican pollster added, suggesting Clinton’s image could actually improve if Vice President Joe Biden entered the race. “She will fare best when she’s compared against another candidate, whether that’s a Democrat or a Republican.”

Yang agreed — and said that the chaos created by the large GOP field was also creating a void that was hurting Clinton in the short term.

“On the one hand, it’s great for the Democratic Party that there’s 17 Republicans [in the race],” Yang added. “On the other hand, it does delay when there’s a real contrast.”

Yang said part of Clinton’s decline was inevitable. Her national favorability ratings were only mediocre during her 2008 campaign — even before Barack Obama wrested away the front-runner mantle. Only after she bowed out of the race, and then later accepted an appointment as Obama’s secretary of state, did Clinton’s image rating improve.

And all the issues she has with trust right now? That may not be as serious as we think either.

Nonetheless, polling history suggests trustworthiness is just one of many measures voters use to assess candidates.

In 2000, Al Gore managed to win the popular vote — but lose the electoral college — despite the fact that exit polls showed voters for whom honesty and integrity were a driving factor overwhelmingly preferred George W. Bush. Gore, on the other hand, was the overwhelming choice of voters who valued experience and intellect.

Finally, der Jebinator doesn’t seem like much of a threat. In fact, he has problems of his own; and unlike Hillary, he doesn’t have a national base and decades of political experience to help resolve them.

Three top Jeb Bush fundraisers abruptly parted ways with his presidential campaign on Friday, amid internal personality conflicts and questions about the strength of his candidacy, POLITICO has learned.

(snip)

The departures came at a time of uncertainty for Bush. While he has had massive success raising money for his super PAC, he is overseeing an official campaign that has many more staffers but far less money. Earlier this week, The New York Times revealed that the campaign had taken steps to rein in some of its spending and had gone so far as to cut some employee salaries. And POLITICO reported that one Bush fundraiser expressed concerns about the slowing pace of the campaign’s fundraising after Bush’s shaky debate performance.

So, my friends, please remember this: The race for the White House is a marathon, not a sprint. And we know who has been training at the appropriate intensity, don’t we?

This is an open thread.

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69 Responses to "Hillary 2016: It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint"

MB, Couldn’t agree more — a constantly breathless narrative is the perfect tonic for anemic ratings. Last week, every other story was about the polling “word cloud” and Hillary’s top descriptor being “liar”.

Well, let’s look at that. In a national poll with self-selecting Republicans outnumbering Dems, and 74% of those Republicans being single-source news consumers and fed a constant diet of Benghazi-email server-gate, what other descriptor would have led such an open-ended solicitation? The Republicans wouldn’t have been paying attention had it been anything else.

For probative value a big, fat, lard-laden nothing burger, but for headlines, in the words of that great intellect from the north, “You betcha!”

I’d like to see better numbers here:

Young white voters are also a big challenge: Just 22 percent said Clinton is honest and trustworthy, versus 73 percent who said she isn’t.

However, there’s time to work on that. And depending on who is the Repub nominee, those numbers could change dramatically.

Did anyone happen to see this about our fave county court clerk?

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/2015/08/29/rowan-transgender-man-and-wife-got-license/71376626/

Is she gonna take back the license now?

@3, I’m sure she is in the peace and quiet of being thrown under her Apostolic Church.

Thank you, you dick, uh Dick for your thoughts on Biden running.

Now you can go back to whatever it was you were doing.

There’s an important tweet from Mike the Tiger.

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

@6, Darth Cheney and his evil-doing daughter, Liz, are hawking a book. The book, in the excerpt form, is basically, “I’ve never been right about anything and I’m right about this — the Iran agreement will ensure the first detonation of a nuclear bomb since Nagasaki.”

In lots of ways, I hope every last one of the Repubs grab onto Cheney and hold on for dear life. He believes America should keep spending on the military and rule the world through constant use of military intervention. The man is the most egregious waste of skin since the first reptile climbed from the primordial goo.

@7, given how fat Mike’s paws are, does he tweet with his claws?

@8: Let’s take his heart back…obviously he doesn’t need it.

@9: That’s what I was thinking Prolix. It’s that or he has a really big laptop with oversized keys.

@8: About the Repubs and Cheney…yes, if the repubs embrace that plus what they’re doing on immigration, it would be the total kiss of death on them.

Yes, numbers are going to go up and down and then I remember them going up and down in 2008 too. If you really want to read a good article on the number Obama has done on the party read this:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/democratic-blues-121561 It is politico but it is very informative. Hillary is trying to rebuild the party after Obama has decimated it.

It’s only Monday, but this is the quote of the week:

Former Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) slammed Sarah Palin and Trump in writing: “If these two were any more full of themselves they’d be Russian nesting dolls.”

Supreme Court denies petition for a stay of Kentucky Clerk’s refusal to issue marriage licenses.

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/08/31/4014039/decision-day-rowan-clerk-must.html

From the story, a local minister said:

“If she has to go to jail, then she will,” said Randy Smith, a local minister.

I wonder if Ms. Davis agrees with and appreciates Rev. Smith speaking for her?

@Ga6th: I’ll have to check that out. Not really fond of Politico but…

Prolix@14: God bless John Dingell.

@7: On the whole, I’m pretty certain that it’s easier to get UGA IX into his crate for travel.

From the KY.com article:

Rowan County is home to Morehead State University.

“It’s a liberal institution, and this cuts to the heart of liberal policies, the liberal agenda,” Smith said. “You look at Casey County, you look at Whitley County, they’re not getting sued. Why? Because there’s no liberal institution there.”

Guffaw!!! Not that I recall. But if MSU is indeed a “liberal institution”, then the students and faculty need to get all liberal crazy and boycott the businesses in Rowan County until thrice-divorced Kim is removed from her job. I really don’t want her fined because some of the religious crazies will start a fund for her. Nope, put her butt in jail.

@19, if they really wanted to punish her, they’d give her a comb and say, “Use it!”

From that church’s website:

Divorce is rare

Well three-times-Kim has blown that one.

http://www.apostolicchristian.org/page.cfm?p=558

chat@18: Mike only travels between his habitat and the stadium. And that’s only if he wants to. I’ve never heard of a human winning an argument with him.

From the comments on that article:

Don’t think of it as going to jail, Ms. Davis. Think of it as an opportunity to possibly meet Husband No. 5.

@13, from the Politico story linked by Georgia:

“I would be the first to concede that we had failed to build a sturdy infrastructure for Democrats from the bottom up,” David Axelrod says.

That is very much like the Titanic design engineers saying, “We failed to adequately plan for underwater operations.”

@24, ROFLMAO!

@25: Excellent! It’s actually Axelrodian for “we were so busy electing the messiah that we failed to allow for anyone else. we ticked off so many Dems that they stayed home for almost a decade thereafter.”

And, don’t forget this gem, from ol’ Cooking with Grease herself:

“It’s almost a crime,” Democratic Party Vice Chair Donna Brazile says. “We have been absolutely decimated at the state and local level.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/democratic-blues-121561#ixzz3kSXq96sB

@27, with a comment from the Brazile Nut, all the precincts have now reported.

@27: Pardon my sexist phrase here for Donna but: Bitch, you got some nerve.

@28: Yep, that should just about do it.

I hate to having to go to Politico, but like a car accident I guess I’m going to have to take a gander at it.

Oh Donna, we remember soooo much about you.

Oh yes Donna, we remember a lot.

Wonderful post, MB, it was like a tonic. And the kitteh picture is perfect.

Also loved all the funny comments, although seeing Donna gave me a painful twinge. In my head.

annie, I can’t believe she had the nerve to say some of that. I so wish they would boot her out of any type of official position she may still have. The less I see of her the better.

Hey all, great comments. Actually, all my links are from Politico. It’s the place for self-appointed experts to share facts and figures and perspectives not necessarily available on other sites. I know it was “Drudgico” in 2008, but it’s not nearly as bad now.

The Dingell quote was absolutely perfect. The ensuing mental picture made me laugh, not just out loud, but loudly. 😄

The story about the DNC is so predictable. We saw what happened in 2010 and 2014. Obama’s coattails were so toxic that candidates stopped identifying themselves as Democrats. And, he did nothing to rebuild the Party after he took it over, moved its headquarters to Chicago, and used its funds and infrastructure to elect himself President. After that, the money came in at certain levels, but who knows what it was used for? Certainly not to win hearts and minds at the state and local level.

And now they know Hillary will come in and fix it. Sometimes I wish she would tell them to go.f*ck themselves and start a new Party. But if she did that, she wouldn’t be President, so she’s stuck with idiots like Brazile.

Great post and good points, Madamab. The breathless media will just have to keep hyperventilating for another year.

Some depressing news, but also a reminder that Brazille-nut’s “We wuz robbed!” is just plain hooey – Obama and his Republican-courting cohorts had toxic coattails for very good reasons.

“Appeals court overturns judge who would have stopped NSA data collection. Bulk spying? That’s a thing? DC Circuit judges are America’s last skeptics.”

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2015/08/appeals-court-overturns-judge-who-would-have-stopped-nsa-data-collection/

Times like these, us bitter knitters may reflect proudly on the fact that Hillary -voted- against and Obama -voted- for FISA and telecom immunity. The obot-meme-crunching media, of course, reported these facts solely as an attempt by then-candidate Clinton to stab then-candidate Obama in the back.

Clerk continues to defy the court and refuses to issue marriage licenses. Here is an exchange:

In a brief but tense encounter between Davis and a couple dozen marriage equality demonstrators, the clerk repeatedly said she was not issuing licenses.

“Under whose authority?” someone in the crowd asked Davis.

“God’s authority,” she responded.

Here is the link and it has a video of the exchange where one of the men asking for a marriage license allows that he has been with his partner for 17 years. He then asks Ms. Davis, how long have you been with any of your husbands? (Ms. Davis has been married 4 times.)

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/09/01/4014743_rowan-county-clerk-continues-to.html?rh=1

It’s a good thing that Mrs. Davis never encountered a clerk whose religious beliefs preclude divorce and remarriage.

Well-said, PDXPat. Very depressing on the spying front, but we did tell them so!

Prolix/Chat – That cockroach, Mrs. 4-time Davis, won’t be able to stand exposure to sunlight for much longer. I can’t wait for.her to get her legal comeuppance. 😇

@37 and 38, well, Ms. Davis didn’t have to go far to find a divorce-tolerant clerk since her MOTHER was the clerk for 37 years prior to her election.

As I said before on Ms Davis, I don’t want her fined, someone will pick up the tab for that. I want her in jail. And I don’t mean at home with an ankle monitor.

Well, well, well Ms. Brazille. See what happens when break the roolz? Would your mama be proud of the colossal failure you have been to the Democratic party? Every single thing you’ve touched has turned to sh*t, including cheating Obama into office. You have now destroyed the D party, just like WE said you would. Why don’t you go cry on your buddy, Karl Rove’s shoulder? Then disappear from politics forever.

I guess Hillary will have to come in and fix the mess, as if she doesn’t have enough to do.

Ah, but the Bible is not so divorce and remarriage tolerant,

Luke 16:18 – Whosoever putteth away his wife, and marrieth another, committeth adultery: and whosoever marrieth her that is put away from [her] husband committeth adultery.

@41: As one Georgia girl to another, are you ready for some football?

Andy Borowitz says the Koch Bros are putting Scott Walker up for sale.

he Kochs, who reportedly had been frustrated by Walker’s poor performance in the polls, finally decided to sell the Wisconsinite after last weekend’s odd pronouncement, in which he seemed to support a border wall with Canada.

According to a Koch associate, “Ignorance has always been a part of Scott’s appeal, but that Canada thing was just too much.”

After their plan to sell him was announced, the Kochs immediately pulled Walker off the campaign trail for fear that he might say something that would further reduce his dwindling market value.

@44, wall envy is the new inseam meme.

Borowitz meant to say, “That Canada thing was just a wall too far.”

As Monty Python would say “and now for something completely different”.

http://video.newyorker.com/watch/comma-queen-the-semicolon

It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s Donald Trump’s face in the buttah!!

GaGal you sure see the decimation of the party down here for sure. The fact that even Nathan Deal got reelected speaks volumes.

Hi, 6th! Lots of Georgia girls here tonite.

@48, Fredster, I think its margarine. Hilarious either way!

I think the county clerk is holding out hoping to score big $. Now I read on one of the newspapers that gofundme does not allow people to ask for donations to help people who have broken the law, and it said that someone nutter did indeed set up a gofundme for her, but gfm shut it down within the first hour it was up. However, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if some right wing PAC doesn’t give her a large windfall to cover her expenses. They seem to think she is motivating the religious right.

I would love to see her spend a few days in jail, but that would just make a martyr out of her. If they fine her, some PAC will pay it, or there are likely other websites that could raise money for her. I am always amazed at how people will throw their $ away on some of these sites.

@47, very cute. Young people should have to watch these.

@43 chatblu, I’m not really a football person, but I do love to see UGA win. My stepfather keeps me updated, so with that and you, fredster & co, I sorta know what’s what.

@49 Ga6th, it’s pretty bad around here. The tea party in this area refers to themselves as the Patriot party. I read in the local paper their speaker would be discussing Agenda 21 at their next meeting. Sometimes I’m tempted to go just to see the crazy.

annie, it just didn’t sound the same saying margarine. 😦

GAgal, if you go to one of those meetings, bring some popcorn.

@53: Go, ‘Dawgs!

Oh, I had this tea party person emailing me Agenda 21 stuff all the time. I can tell you that they think that the government is going to come and take all their property and squash them like cockroaches. They also think that they’re going to be rounded up into FEMA camps. The irony of George W. Bush (their hero) actually putting people in FEMA camps does not seem to have dawned on them. These people are just nuts.

Ga6th said: The irony of George W. Bush (their hero) actually putting people in FEMA camps does not seem to have dawned on them. These people are just nuts.

Ironic indeed considering all of the FEMA travel trailer camps that were set up after Katrina and Rita.

@42 and 51: Not to get all judgey and stuff, but U.S. News has some juicy tidbits about our favorite county clerk, Kim Davis.

Davis gave birth to twins five months after divorcing her first husband. They were fathered by her third husband but adopted by her second husband. Davis worked at the clerk’s office at the time of each divorce and has since remarried for the fourth time.

Hypocrite much?

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/09/01/kentucky-clerk-fighting-gay-marriage-has-wed-four-times

Oh but Prolix, that happened in the past so it’s different.

@59, Wow! And voters in that district thought she had the judgement to be their county clerk? And what morals–getting pregnant by another man when she was married? Staggering hypocrisy.

GAgal, if you go to one of those meetings, wear a disguise and make sure no one is following you home! Sounds unsafe.

@54, LOL! Very true! I should’ve thought of that.

annie@61: Well Prolix said her mom had been clerk before her so maybe they figure it’s their job by default. And I think I read somewhere where one of her kids (a son?) also works in the office. Yep:

Clerking has been a family business in Rowan County. Davis worked for her mother for 27 years before replacing her in the elected post this year, and her son Nathan now works for her. He personally turned away a gay couple last week.

So if she gets kicked out or resigns or whatever, probably the son will run for the job. 🙄

old link:

http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2015/08/17/reluctant-kentucky-clerk-gets-time-for-gay-marriage-appeal

Can I post a frothing bit of outrage on this here open thread? It’s somewhat Hillary-related, in that she would never, ever do something like this. Plus another reason for Obama’s toxic coattails.

My apologies to anyone for whom this is old news, but I didn’t know until reading it in a post over at Up’s place that Obama had recently approved new drilling in the incredibly fragile Arctic Ocean. Just ahead of his visit to sternly lecture everyone else on the damage massive carbon emissions do to the planet.

Environmentalists and Democratic congress people fought so hard for so long against this and he just gives away the store. Now the #!#$ stands in front of the dwindling Exit glacier in stunningly beautiful Seward for a photo-op and pontificates about climate change.

One link here: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/approval-arctic-drilling-comes-just-obamas-visit/. Another here: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/obama-in-alaska-uses-melting-glacier-as-presidential-pulpit-on-climate-change-1.3211921.

Trustworthy? Oh, yeah, you can trust Obama to talk gibly out of both sides of his mouth. Something I don’t think Hillary could do if she tried.

@PDXPat: Rant and froth away! 🙂

The Rude Pundit weighs in on Rowan County Court Clerk Kim Davis. Note: He does get rude.

@65 Thanks, Fredster – will do!

As Kim Davis amply demonstrates, neither party has a monopoly on shameless self-serving hypocrisy.

She’s guilty! Gasp! There are at least 6 – count ’em folks, six – emails that were classified after she sent them! Try her for treason, by God.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/clinton-wrote-sent-classi%EF%AC%81ed-e-mails-on-private-server/ar-AAdRhsC

Oh but the resident right winger at WaPo, thinks she’s losing and the Dems “can’t live w/out her and can’t win with her”.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2015/09/02/democrats-dilemma-cant-live-without-hillary-clinton-cant-win-with-her/

Going to Prolix’s new post now.

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