The Widdershins

Dark and bloody hunting ground…

Posted on: May 20, 2014

Good Tuesday afternoon Widdershins. The chattering class is calling today a mini-Super Tuesday so in the words of Phil Collins, I guess this is a “pseu-pseu-pseudo-election day.“

McConnell Grimes

 

There’s a half-dozen states holding primaries today, but none has been more watched than Kentucky’s pitting Mitch McConnell against carpet-bagging Tea Partier Matt Bevin. From the outset, the national media and the Tea Party put a big red “X” on McConnell’s shell hoping Bevin would be serving bountiful portions of turtle soup. Not gonna happen unless turnout is miniscule.

The last poll showed McConnell thumping Bevin by 20% so look for an early call on the race. The Senate primary hasn’t been very interesting, outside of Bevin going to a cockfighting rally, speaking at the rally about the importance of cockfighting (really he did), and then denying he knew it was a rally about cockfighting — perhaps he thought it was just rooster palates.

There are some nuggets from the polling though. Bevin has made modest increases during the campaign and is currently polling about 35%. Most of those polled are of the opinion after thirty-years in office, McConnell needs his rest and should be retired to a nice petting zoo. Bevin’s final numbers will be an accurate barometer of the depth of McConnell’s disfavor with voters, so watch Bevin’s final numbers.

All the polling shows Alison Lundergan Grimes running even with McConnell for the fall. Grimes is still relatively unknown by a large percentage of the electorate so look for McConnell to try and define her beginning immediately after the primary.

Grimes has been relatively successful raising money. She even bested McConnell during a couple of reporting periods, but expect the Brothers Koch, Karl Rove, the Chamber of Commerce, and every other conservative group that can spell PAC to portray her as the love child of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi who went to a Kenyan or Indonesian prom with a skinny kid by the name of Hussein Obama. Dark moneyed PACs supporting McConnell have already bought, paid for, and scheduled $5.2 Million in ads hoping to negatively define Grimes.

McConnell has always believed Obama’s unpopularity in the Commonwealth was his ticket to re-election. The polling indicates that ticket might not get punched. While Obama’s favorability rating is only 29% in the state, one guess whose approval rating is exactly the same? Wait for it…McConnell’s and that is rich in irony.

With Democrats holding a 500,000 registration edge over Republicans, it will only take but a few percentage points of the disgruntled Bevin voters to make a difference in Grimes’ favor.

There is a troubling aspect of the polling and that is with women. Incredibly and quite inexplicably, McConnell has made significant progress with Republican women in spite of his anemic approval ratings. Among Republican women, 62% support Mitch.

At one point, Grimes held a 12 point advantage among all women, but that has been diminished to a mere 4 points. This is troubling because Mitch hasn’t targeted women with specific messaging.

One last interesting polling nugget, it seems the oomph has run out of the Obamacare argument. That should be good news for Democrats nationwide since the Affordable Care Act was particularly unpopular in Kentucky while Kynect, the state exchange, was and is much more popular.

There’s an old legend that the name Kentucky was taken from a combination of native American words meaning “dark and bloody hunting ground.”  While that isn’t true, when it comes to politics and “take no prisoners warfare,” Mitch McConnell has no equal.  So as far as the legend goes, come Wednesday morning it might as well be true.

This is an open thread.

 

 

 

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9 Responses to "Dark and bloody hunting ground…"

Let the games begin.

Sorta like the “Hunger Games” on steroids.

Or Game of Thrones?

it will only take but a few percentage points of the disgruntled Bevin voters to make a difference in Grimes’ favor.

So I wonder if the Bevin voters would just sit out the general election? I can’t see them rejecting McConnell and then voting for Grimes.

Look at all the Clinton voters who voted for McCain.

@5: Point taken.

What the heck is Lundergan doing that she can’t beat McConnell with women? Someone needs better messaging. Lord knows McConnell doesn’t give a pot of turtle pee about them.

For some strange reason, married women are trending Republican these days., Go figure. To be fair, this may be why the Repubs keep pushing traditional marriage.

The Tea Party is going down everywhere. Excellent news from Georgia. Gingrey and Broun did not make the runoff, and Georgia insists that you can only have one race at a time, so they are out of the House in January,

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